The company announced plans to increase by 3.472 billion, of which 74% will be used for overseas phase III clinical trials of Compaq nAMD, RVO and DME3 indications as well as subsequent registration and listing projects. We believe that this shows the company's determination to continue R & D and promotion overseas, and based on CompaSep's experience of hundreds of thousands of patients in China, we believe that it ensures the safety of global multicenter clinical trials. In terms of rhythm, we expect 2021Q1 to release mid-term data analysis results, which will also become non-inferior key data for Compaxip and Apexipe. From the sales data, we can see that the sales growth rate of Compaq continued to accelerate from March to September 2020 compared with the same period last year, and we believe that the trend of accelerated volume of Compaq in 2020Q4-2021 is expected to continue.
Main points of investment
Will increase the code overseas research and development, looking forward to 20Q1 data blindness
Event: the company released the "A-share non-public offering Plan" on December 4, 2020, which is proposed to increase by no more than 3.472 billion yuan, of which: 1.965 billion yuan is used for Compaq ophthalmic injection RVO/DME indication international III clinical trial and registered listing project (accounting for 56.6%), 608 million for Compaq ophthalmic injection international III clinical trial and registered listing project (accounting for 17.5%) 766 million is used for chemical raw material drug base construction project (22.1%), and 133 million yuan is used for authentic medicinal material planting base and seedling center project (3.8%).
Viewpoint: plus overseas clinical confidence, looking forward to the blindness of overseas mid-term data. The company's additional funds of 74.1% will be used for the development of overseas phase III clinical trials of Compaq nAMD, RVO and DME indications and subsequent registration and listing projects, which shows the company's determination to promote Compaq overseas. Based on the experience of hundreds of thousands of patients in China, we expect Compaq to be safe in global multicenter clinical trials. The global multicenter phase III clinical trial of Compex's nAMD indications was completed on December 24, 2019, and on September 25, 2020, the global phase Ⅲ clinical trial of Combexil for the treatment of nAMD has completed the 36-week primary end point visit of all subjects. We expect to release the results of the mid-term data analysis at 2021Q1, which will also be the key data for Corbusip to compete with Abercrombie, the world's largest by sales. If Compex shows that the clinical effect of lower injection frequency is similar to that of Abrex in the overseas phase III clinical trial, we believe that it is expected to accelerate the increase of the company's domestic market share, which will lead to a further acceleration in revenue.
The increment of health insurance is accelerated, and the ceiling opens more than expected?
From March to September 2020, the sales growth rate of Compaq continued to accelerate compared with the same period last year, and the short-term accelerated volume trend of 2020Q4-2021 is expected to continue. From the sample hospital data, we can see that the monthly sales growth rate continued to increase year-on-year from March to September since the low sales caused by the epidemic in February and the impact of the Spring Festival holiday. In September 2020, the sales growth rate of Compaq sample hospital reached 12.72% year-on-year, and the corresponding sales growth rate reached 50.38% year-on-year. We believe that although the epidemic has affected hospital sales of drugs such as Compaximab in the short term, however, the reduction in health insurance prices has directly stimulated higher demand on the demand side (as can be seen from the continued rapid release of Compaximab, razumab and abacil in July-September 2020). The demand side is still expected to continue to release after the end of the epidemic, which will continue to accelerate Q4 performance. Based on the low base of sales affected by the 2020 epidemic, there will be no price reduction in 2021 compared with the same period in 2020, so we believe that the growth rate of income in 2021 is expected to show a faster acceleration trend.
Profit forecast and valuation
We expect the company's EPS to be 0.85,1.02,1.19 yuan per share from 2020 to 2022, with a "buy" rating of 52 times PE on December 4, 2020 (44 times PE in 2021).
Risk hint
Policy risk, market competition risk, less-than-expected clinical progress of innovative drugs or clinical development failure risk, product sales risk.
