Events. The company announces the plan for the non-public offering of A-shares in 2020.
1. Quantity and amount: no more than 184 million shares (including 184 million shares), and the total amount raised does not exceed 3.472 billion yuan (including 3.472 billion yuan)
two。 Issued to no more than 35 specific investors
3. Issue price: not less than 80% of the average trading price of 20 trading days before the pricing benchmark. Lock-up period: 6 months
5. Fund-raising purposes: Compaq ophthalmic injection international III clinical trial and registration listing project (608 million), RVO/DME indication international III clinical trial and registration listing project (1.965 billion), chemical raw material drug base construction project (766 million), authentic medicine planting base and seedling center project (133 million).
Viewpoint: additional funds will help Compaq International Phase III clinical promotion, and nAMD data are worth looking forward to.
1. Fixed additional funds to help Compaq International III clinical promotion: the vast majority of this additional funds (about 2.6 billion) will be used for Compaq International III clinical trials and registration. At present, all subjects have been visited at the 36th week of the international III phase of Cobb nAMD indications, which is expected to be unblinded in 2021Q1 and listed overseas in 2022-2023. DME/BRVO/CRVO 's phase III clinical trial has also been reviewed by the FDA special trial program.
two。 The construction project of the API base and the planting and breeding project help to ensure the stable supply of the company's API and traditional Chinese medicine products: the company's existing chemical API production base is Chengdu Hongda, with limited production capacity and outdated equipment. the company plans to build a new API production workshop to solve the above problems by increasing funds. Planting and breeding projects will help to ensure the future production of traditional Chinese medicine varieties.
3. Looking forward to 2020, two new indications will be added to health insurance, the outcome of health insurance negotiations is more optimistic, the epidemic situation is gradually recovering, Compaq is expected to continue to release volume, and the blindness of global multicenter clinical data is worthy of attention. In the health insurance negotiations last year, Compaq added two major indications, DME and CNV, to health insurance, totaling nearly 10 million patients, further expanding the scope of drug use of Compaq health insurance and promoting the dose. The reimbursement amount of medical insurance is increased, and the three drugs can be calculated together, which is beneficial to improve the consultation rate, and patients are more inclined to choose Compaq, which is more economical. The impact of the epidemic is fading, and Compaq is expected to continue to do so. In addition, the global multicenter clinical data of nAMD indications are expected to be blinded by Q1 next year, which is worthy of attention.
Profit forecast and valuation. We believe that Compaq is expected to bring accelerated volume with a smaller price drop in 2020-2021, and chemicals and traditional Chinese medicine will continue to provide stable cash flow. From 2020 to 2022, we estimate that the operating income is 3.38 billion yuan, 4.374 billion yuan and 5.168 billion yuan respectively, an increase of 3.8%, 29.4% and 18.2% over the same period last year. The net profit of homecoming is 746 million yuan, 975 million yuan and 1.214 billion yuan respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 3.9%, 30.7%, 24.6% and 1.32 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 55x, 42x and 34x respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the risk of higher-than-expected price reduction by Compaq; the risk of clinical failure in the United States; the risk that the adjustment speed of the non-biological drug sector is lower than expected; the risk of failure in the research and development of new drugs.
