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北部湾港(000582):史上最强10月台风月 北部湾港集装箱继续高增长

華西證券 ·  Nov 6, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Incident Overview Beibu Gulf Port released October throughput data. In October, Beibu Gulf Port completed cargo throughput of 21.8428 million tons, +2.43% year-on-year; completed container throughput of 5391,000 TEUs, +36.54% year-on-year. In the first 10 months of 2020, Beibu Gulf Port completed a cargo throughput of 22.4897 million tons, a year-on-year increase of +16.85%, and a container throughput of 4.292,700 TEUs, +31.69% of the same period. October ushered in the strongest typhoon month in history, with 7 typhoons in a single month tying the historical record. The extremely bad weather combined with the National Day holiday was extended compared to the same period last year. The growth rate of cargo throughput at Beibu Gulf Port slowed in October, but it still achieved positive growth, which to a certain extent reflects the strong growth potential of China's central and western regions and ASEAN. According to the November 4 news from China Weather Network, a total of 7 typhoons occurred in the Pacific Northwest and South China Sea in October 2020. The number of typhoons generated increased by 3.4 over the same period of the year (3.6), tying the historical record for the number of typhoons generated in October (7 in 1984 and 1992). Bad weather had a negative impact on ports and shipping services in Guangxi, Hainan and other regions. Furthermore, the National Day holiday in October 2020 coincided with the Mid-Autumn Festival holiday. The number of statutory holidays was 8 days, an increase of 1 day over the same period last year. Affected by extremely bad weather and a year-on-year decrease in working days, Beibu Gulf Port's throughput growth rate slowed in October, down 16.13 percentage points from the +18.56% growth rate in September, but it still maintained positive growth. We believe that to a certain extent, it reflects the strong growth potential of China's central and western regions and ASEAN. The vigorous implementation of fragmented restructuring, combined with the rapid increase in sea-rail intermodal traffic volume in the new land, sea and sea corridors in the west, still saw a sharp increase in container throughput at Beibu Gulf Port in October. Container throughput at Beibu Gulf Port continued to grow rapidly in October, and was 2.05 percentage points higher than the +34.49% growth rate in September. We believe the main reasons are: 1) The Beibu Gulf region is vigorously promoting the dispersion and collection of goods such as gravel and ore. 2) The volume of sea-rail intermodal traffic in the new land and sea corridors in the west is growing rapidly. According to the news from Ping An Guangxi Network on November 5, 2020, as of the end of October, the sea-rail intermodal traffic volume of the new land, sea and sea channel in the west exceeded 220,000 TEUs, +110.2% over the same period last year. Investment advice: Bad weather is only a short-term factor, without changing the long-term logic. We believe that Beibu Bay Port's long-term investment logic in the context of the “three structural adjustments” will not change. Key Lingang projects that will be put into operation one after another starting in the second half of 2020 will drive Beibu Bay Port's cargo throughput to continue to grow rapidly. Reiterates its recommendation to Beibu Bay Port, China's central and western development and ASEAN development indicators unit, which has been seriously underestimated, reaffirms the target price of 21.6 yuan/share, and reaffirms the “buy” rating. We believe that as the impact of short-term negative factors such as bad weather and extended holidays is eliminated, the cargo throughput of Beibu Gulf Port will continue to grow steadily, and the long-term investment logic will not change. We maintain our profit forecast for the company's net profit for 2020-22 of 11.7/14.5/1.74 billion yuan, respectively. EPS is 0.72/0.89/1.07 yuan, respectively. According to the closing price of 1,065 yuan/share on November 5, 2020, the corresponding PE is 14.5/11.7/9.7 times, respectively. We reaffirmed the company's target price of 21.6 yuan/share and reaffirmed the “buy” rating. Risks suggest that the macroeconomic environment may decline beyond expectations; the duration of the epidemic; that the convertible debt-to-share price announced by Beibu Gulf Port has not yet been determined; and that the company's revenue from a single ton of goods may fluctuate in the short term.

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