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PARADISE ENTERTAINMENT(1180.HK)年报点评:成本快速上升 下半年业绩令人失望

PARADISE ENTERTAINMENT (1180.HK) Annual Report Review: Costs Are Rising Rapidly, Results for the Second Half of the Year are Disappointing

申銀萬國 ·  Mar 30, 2015 00:00  · Researches

Revenue was in line with expectations, and profits fell short of expectations. Huicai Holdings announced its 2014 results, with total revenue of HK$1.19 billion, in line with our forecast of HK$1.2 billion. However, net profit was only HK$508 million, which was 15% lower than our previous forecast. Excluding one-time non-cash losses due to early redemption of accepted notes, the company's recurring net profit was HK$93 million, down 4% from the previous year. Revenue from casino operations increased 20% year over year, mainly due to the fact that Jinbihuicai Casino achieved a year-on-year increase of about 17%, and revenue from newly added Huadu and Jockey Club casinos.

Costs have increased dramatically. We think earnings were weaker than expected mainly due to the sharp increase in costs at Huadu and Jockey Club casinos. The company began operating Jockey Club Casino in April 2014 and Huadu Casino from the second half of 2013. As a result, significant start-up related expenses were recorded in 2014. At the same time, in order to promote these two casinos, significant additional promotional expenses were added, especially in the second half of 2014. According to our forecast, these two newly added casinos caused the company to lose nearly HK$60 million in EBITDA in 2014.

The dividend distribution was the only highlight. The company announced a dividend of 7 Hong Kong cents per share, totaling HK$74 million, an increase of 40% over the previous year, and a dividend rate of 127%. Since the company's 2014 net profit included a one-time non-cash loss of HK$35 million and intangible asset amortization expenses of HK$66 million, actual disposable free cash flow is abundant, which can support a high percentage of long-term dividends.

Casino operations in the first half of 2015 are not optimistic. The company has implemented a cost control plan since January, mainly to control free rooms and meals. At the same time, some promotion expenses due to the opening of new casinos last year will not occur this year. However, we expect Huadu's business situation to improve more slowly than we had previously anticipated, and it is likely that it will continue to record losses in 2015, although the loss margin will narrow somewhat.

Lower earnings forecasts. We lowered our 2015 and 2016 earnings forecasts from 0.15 and 0.23 to 0.12 and 0,2, while introducing the 2017 EPS forecast to 0.31. The lower earnings forecast mainly reflects our more pessimistic expectations about casino operations. The GGR forecast for the full year of 2015 was lowered to 0% from the previous 4%. However, we remain optimistic about the company's machine sales and leasing business, maintaining our previous sales forecasts. We lowered our target price to HK$2.09, corresponding to the increase in holdings rating. We believe that as the company's cost control strategy gradually shows results, machine orders are announced one after another, and the company's investment opportunities may appear in the second half of the year.

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