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世联行(002285):交易服务稳中求进 业务调整影响短期业绩

中信建投證券 ·  Nov 1, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Incidents The World Federation Bank released its three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, and net profit of 669 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 204.5%. The core view is that the impact of the epidemic and business adjustments have affected the company's performance, and strengthened refined operations to respond positively. From January to September 2020, the company achieved revenue of 4.48 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, and net profit of a net profit of 69 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 204.5%. The main reason for the company's losses in the first three quarters was that the impact of the epidemic and the company's business adjustments had a great impact on post-transaction service revenue. Current revenue fell 54.0%, which caused a major drag on profits. The decline in performance was higher than that of revenue and revenue, mainly due to a decline in gross margin and a marked decline in investment income. In the first three quarters, the company's gross margin was 9.1%, down 2.6 percentage points from the same period last year. Investment income was a loss of 23.308 million yuan, mainly a decrease in investment income of joint ventures, compared to 19939 million yuan in the same period last year. Although the company has inevitably been affected by the pandemic, the company has responded positively. The company's annual expense ratio for the first three quarters was 8.6%, down 1.7 percentage points from the same period last year, reflecting the company's active management improvement and cost control. The transaction service business is progressing steadily, and the post-transaction service business is actively transforming. By business, the trading services business remained steady, achieving revenue of 3.04 billion yuan in the first three quarters, accounting for 68.8% of total revenue, an increase of 6.6% over the previous year. The positive growth of the transaction service business is mainly due to the division's active integration of channels, development and expansion of the scale of distribution and direct sales business, and increased customer acceptance of online services during the pandemic, and the Internet+ business achieved rapid growth of 28.5%. Post-transaction services achieved revenue of 290 million yuan, accounting for 6.6% of total revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 54.0%. The sharp decline was mainly due to: 1) the company actively controlled risks, tended to be cautious in investing in mortgages, and financial services revenue fell 55.0% year on year; 2) The pandemic had a great impact on the decoration business, causing its revenue to drop 52.3% year on year. The asset management business has remained stable, and the asset management business has seen a decrease in revenue from asset investment services due to the pandemic and market impact, resulting in a 5.1% year-on-year decline in revenue. The basic market for trading services is still stable, and future operations are expected to improve marginally after Da Heng Qin enters the market. The company has now accumulated agency sales of about 358.6 billion yuan that have not been settled, which will bring the company about 2.62 billion yuan in agency fee revenue in the next 3 to 9 months. The basic market for trading services remains stable, and future earnings are still guaranteed. We believe that the impact of the epidemic and business adjustments and transformation have indeed brought certain challenges to the company, but the basic market for trading services is still there, and it is having a positive impact on the company's operations even after Da Heng Qin became the actual controller. The company's basic fabrics will gradually improve in the future. Maintain the buy rating. Considering improvements in asset management and operations, we forecast the company's EPS for 2020-2022 to be 0.05/0.05/0.06 yuan. Risk warning: The decline in transaction services exceeded expectations; the development of property management fell short of expectations.

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