Summary content
The turning point of Xinneng car in 2020, the secondary price reflects the high growth expectation in the next two years. The fundamentals of the new energy vehicle plate turned in 2020, and the market showed a V-shaped reversal as early as late October 2019. We believe that the bottom of this market is the understanding of the bottom of the new energy vehicle industry in advance. Therefore, this position (1500 points of the new energy vehicle index) as the anchor point of the fundamentals of the new energy vehicle index in 2019, then the corresponding value points of fundamental growth from 2020 to 2022 are 1890 points, 2780 points and 3550 points, respectively. The recent peak of the new energy vehicle index is 3506 points, which basically reflects the growth expectations for the next two years, and the continued rise must extend beyond 2023.
The market is more concerned about the quarterly improvement of the Xineng car sector this year. The negative growth of plate net profit in 2019-2020 was mainly affected by factors such as subsidy decline and epidemic situation. China's production and sales of new energy vehicles recovered significantly, and the year-on-year growth rate of electric vehicles in Europe continued to significantly outperform that of passenger vehicles as a whole in September. The fundamentals of the new energy vehicle sector improved quarter by quarter this year, and net profit increased by 20% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year.
The fundamentals of Xinneng car have excellent certainty and growth. Xinneng vehicle constituent stocks are currently expected to grow by 47% in 2021, 28% in 2022, and a compound growth rate of 37%. Compared with the first-tier industry, the growth of Xinneng car sector in the next two years is among the best, second only to the leisure service industry.
Cathay Pacific Suneng ETF scale is more suitable for playing new, eight months on the market outperformed the benchmark performance of 8%. Similar ETF issued by different managers have little difference in fundamental growth, individual equity reconfiguration varies due to different performance benchmarks, Cathay Pacific Suneng ETF is more suitable for innovation, with an 8.28% increase in earnings relative to the performance benchmark from March 21 to November 18 after listing.
Cathay Pacific Suneng ETF is still at the center of fundamental value in 2020-2023. Cathay Pacific Xinneng ETF has accumulated a large increase since it was launched this year. From ETF pricing, the fundamentals of 2020-2022 correspond to 0.98,1.44,1.84 yuan per share, respectively. Considering the switching of performance over the next year, the follow-up fluctuation range of Xineng car ETF is [2020 fundamental value, 2023 fundamental value]. Assuming an increase of 25% in 2023, the ETF price fluctuation range is [0.98 yuan / share]. The Nov. 18 closing price is at the center of that value range.
The configuration of the new energy car ETF still has absolute benefits, but it should not be held for a short time. Under the neutral assumption, with the closing price of November 18 as the holding cost, the annualized rate of return held until the end of 2021 is 9%. Assuming that the Xineng car sector grows by 25% a year after 2023, the annualized rate of return held until the end of 2022 is 16%. The annualized rate of return held until the end of 2022 is 19%.
Risk hint: the promotion of new energy policy is not as expected, and the sales of new energy vehicles are not as expected, resulting in a decline in fundamental growth rate and lack of economic continuity.
