Event: the company announced 2020Q3 financial results, realizing operating income of 600 million yuan, an increase of 26.51% over the same period last year, net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies-20 million yuan, an increase of 67.41% over the same period last year, and net profit belonging to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring profits and losses-22 million yuan, an increase of 65.57% over the same period last year. In line with market expectations.
The high increase in income confirms the bank's leading position in IT, and its net profit is mainly affected by seasonality. 1) under the influence of the domestic epidemic situation, the online trend of financial IT business shows explosive growth. In the first three quarters of 2020, the company's operating income increased by 26.51%, and Q3 single-quarter operating income increased by 19.64%. The company is rich in online products and technology in bank IT, from online banking, mobile banking, direct selling banking to Internet banking. Related business areas are in a leading position in China. In addition, it also reflects the high prosperity of the bank IT industry. 2) considering the obvious seasonal characteristics of the project completion acceptance of the bank IT, the operating income over the years is mainly recognized in the fourth quarter, but the expenses during the period are more balanced, so that the net profit in the first three quarters is negative. 3) from the perspective of income composition, it is expected that several major business lines of the company's electronic banking, Internet banking, non-bank financial institutions and banking core business will continue the high growth trend in the first half of the year, and their performance will improve steadily.
During this period, the overall cost was stable, and the R & D investment continued to be high. 1) in the first three quarters of 2020, the sales expense rate was 9.58%, down 2.49% from the same period last year; the management expense rate was 11.77%, down 3.7% from the same period last year; and the financial expense rate was 4.54%, down 0.77% from the same period last year. 2) in the first three quarters of 2020, the company invested 86 million yuan in R & D, an increase of 23.68% over the same period last year.
The bank IT is subdivided into the leading domestic enterprises, and the founder gene decides that the financial IT and database can be deeply distributed. 1) the company is the leading IT solution provider for banks in China. From more than 20 years of development history, the company in the bank IT online technology accumulation is rich, and R & D forward-looking. At present, it has covered 300 + bank customers, and the total number of landing projects has reached 2000. 2) the real controller has 15 years of experience in overseas top financial database to ensure the company's strategic development direction in the field of financial IT and database. In particular, the company formally acquired a 67.15% stake in South Korea's SUNJE SOFT Co., Ltd. with 73 million yuan in cash in 2018 to enter the high-end domestic database market.
Database localization of 10 billion-level market demand, the company's intellectual property rights and performance advantages. 1) the global database software market is worth US $46.1 billion in 2018 and is expected to reach US $54.9 billion in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of 9.1%.
China's database software market is growing steadily, and the China Research Institute of Industry estimates that the market size will reach 20 billion yuan by 2020. Oracle, IBM and other enterprises occupy the main domestic market share for a long time because of their first-mover advantages and high technical barriers. 2) the trend of information innovation driven by policies, domestic databases may open up tens of billions of replacement space, especially in the financial sector. Domestic databases launched by technology giants such as BABA and Huawei have come to the fore in some scenarios and have been gradually replaced by a number of mainstream banks. 3) in 2018, the company acquired 67.15% of South Korea's SUNJE SOFT, and owns the complete independent intellectual property rights of Goldilocks, a distributed memory database product developed by SUNJE SOFT. Moreover, the company's products have experienced a number of global top customer cases, such as SK Telecom, China Unicom, etc., its performance is reliable and mature, can meet complex business needs. 4) in October 2020, the company's database was gradually promoted, winning the bid, Mobile Information Technology Co., Ltd. developed its own database maintenance and tool development service procurement project in 2020, signed a joint innovation laboratory framework agreement on "Goldilocks distributed database" with Jiangxi Bank Co., Ltd., and signed a cooperation framework agreement on "Goldilocks distributed relational database" project with Hunan Xiangjiang New area Management Committee. Under the trend of the innovation industry of IT infrastructure, the company's database products have outstanding advantages in intellectual property rights and performance, and are expected to enjoy the localization dividend of the 10 billion-level market.
Maintain a "buy" rating. According to the key assumptions, the operating income from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 1.206 billion yuan, 1.575 billion yuan and 2.046 billion yuan respectively, and the net profit from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be 67 million yuan, 95 million yuan and 146 million yuan respectively. Consider the leading position of bank IT segment industry and the trend of database innovation industry, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: the database business does not advance as expected; the risk of rising staff compensation; the risk that the forecast hypothesis is different from the actual situation.