On November 15, the 10 ASEAN countries and 15 countries of China, Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand formally signed the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (RCEP), marking the formal conclusion of the world's largest free trade agreement. After 8 years of running, the world's largest free trade zone agreement initiated by ASEAN has been implemented, and 90% of trade in goods between participating countries will achieve zero tariffs. Negotiations related to RCEP were officially launched in November 2012. After 8 years, they were officially signed and implemented on November 15, 2020. The 15 participating countries that have reached the RCEP agreement will cover the world's 2.3 billion people, accounting for about 30% of the global population; the total GDP will exceed 25 trillion US dollars, accounting for about 31.6% of the global GDP, and bilateral trade volume will account for about 28.5% of the total global trade volume. The included region will become the world's largest free trade area. According to Times Weekly's November 15 news, Xu Changchun, a researcher at the China Center for International Economic Exchanges, said in an interview that the RCEP agreement negotiations will include four aspects: 1) stipulating that 90% of trade in goods between participating countries will achieve zero tariffs; 2) implementing unified rules of origin to allow the calculation of product added value throughout the RCEP; 3) broadening access to trade in services and multinational investment; and 4) adding new rules for e-commerce facilitation. Furthermore, the RCEP agreement is the only regional trade agreement centered on developing economies. The RCEP agreement was initiated by ASEAN. All other participating countries linked these economies by first establishing an “ASEAN+1" free trade agreement with ASEAN and then using ASEAN as a node. The 10 ASEAN countries, Japan, South Korea and other RCEP participants are important trading partners of China. The signing of the agreement will support China's strategic layout to achieve a “double cycle”. According to data from the General Administration of Customs, in the first 10 months of 2020, China's import and export trade volume with ASEAN, Japan, South Korea, Australia and New Zealand was 3.79/1.80/1.62/0.96/0.10 trillion yuan respectively, accounting for 14.6%/6.9%/6.2%/3.7%/0.4% of China's total import and export trade, respectively. Among them, ASEAN, Japan and South Korea were China's first, fourth and fifth largest trading partners respectively. We believe that the signing of the RCEP will facilitate the development of China's import and export trade with other participating countries and provide strong support for China to achieve a “double cycle” strategic layout. Investment advice: Reiterate the recommendation for Beibu Gulf Port, an indicator stock for the development of central and western China and ASEAN development. Guangxi is the only province in China that borders ASEAN countries (Vietnam) by land and sea. In the first 9 months of 2020, Guangxi's import and export trade volume to ASEAN accounted for about 48.2% of Guangxi's total import and export trade volume, far exceeding Guangxi's import and export trade volume with other regions. Half of Beibu Gulf Port's foreign trade routes (14) are routes to ASEAN countries. We believe that the signing of the RCEP agreement initiated by ASEAN will greatly promote trade development between China's southern provinces, especially Guangxi, and ASEAN countries, and accelerate the growth of Beibu Gulf Port's cargo throughput. We maintain our profit forecast, reaffirm our target price of 21.6 yuan/share, and reaffirm the “buy” rating. We maintain our profit forecast of 11.7/14.5/1.74 billion yuan for the company's 2020-22 net profit, respectively. EPS was 0.72/0.89/1.07 yuan, respectively. According to the closing price of 11.22 yuan/share on November 13, 2020, the corresponding PE was 14.9/12/10 times, respectively. We reaffirm the company's target price of 21.6 yuan/share and reaffirm the “buy” rating. Risks suggest that the macroeconomic environment may decline beyond expectations; the duration of the epidemic; the short-term convertible debt-for-share price announced by Beibu Gulf Port has not been determined; and the company's revenue per ton of goods may fluctuate in the short term.
北部湾港(000582):RCEP签订 重申推荐东盟发展指标股北部湾港
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