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航民股份(600987):公布股权回购计划 关注公司长线价值

廣發證券 ·  Nov 14, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The company announced an equity repurchase plan, demonstrating management's confidence in future performance. Based on confidence in the stable future development of Hangmin shares and recognition of long-term investment value, (1) on November 12, 2020, Hangmin Group increased its holdings of listed company shares by 3.5 million shares with its own capital, accounting for about 0.32% of the shares issued by listed companies. Before the increase, it held 412 million shares of listed companies, accounting for 38.12% of the total share capital, and held 415 million shares after the increase, accounting for 38.44% of the total share capital. (2) The company will continue to increase its holdings of listed companies by 65-16.5 million shares with its own capital within 6 months, accounting for about 0.6%-1.53% of the total share capital. Furthermore, no price range will be set for this increase in holdings, and plans to increase holdings will be implemented gradually according to stock price fluctuations and capital market trends. The printing and dyeing business is expected to enter a recovery cycle in the fourth quarter. The company's equity repurchase plan shows management's confidence in future performance. After a low performance base for several quarters, the company's future short and medium term results are guaranteed. By successfully entering the international high-end supply chain, there is room for the company's long-term performance. (1) Short-term: Since the sudden drop in temperature in October, most garment retail enterprises have experienced positive turnover growth, which is expected to drive upstream textile manufacturers to quickly reverse the increase in order volume in the fourth quarter. (2) Mid-term: Apparel retail sales are expected to normalize in the first and second quarters of next year, and orders from clothing retailers are expected to gradually resume starting in the fourth quarter of this year. (3) Long-term: Entering the international supply chain is expected to make the company immune to the impact of some trade wars, and the industry mainly focuses on low-price printing and dyeing. Consumption in this part is huge. Relying on the quality assurance of the high-end supply chain, the company is expected to reduce the impact and continuously increase its share in the low-priced product market. The results for 2020-2022 were 0.63 yuan/share, 0.75 yuan/share, and 0.80 yuan/share, respectively. The company's current stock price corresponds to 7.5 times PE in '21. Referring to the average PE (TTM) of 11.3 times in the past three years, the 2021 PE valuation is 11 times (the aviation gold business is the same processing business, and the contribution profit is low, so the combined valuation). The corresponding reasonable value is 8.3 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning. There are risks such as sluggish demand; performance promises agreed upon in the 18-year restructuring will not be fulfilled.

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