Performance summary: the company released its three-quarter report in 2020, with revenue of 990 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 6.3% over the same period last year, a net profit of 320 million yuan, an increase of 35.7%, and a non-return net profit of 280 million yuan, an increase of 18.8% over the same period last year.
The impact of the epidemic subsided, and income picked up quarter by quarter. In the first three quarters of 2020, the single-quarter income of Q1/Q2/Q3 was 3300.36 billion yuan (- 0.1% Universe 3.1% / + 15.6%). As the impact of the epidemic receded, the income picked up quarter by quarter. The single-quarter gross profit margin is 83.6%, 83.8%, 85.2%, respectively, and the profitability is constantly increasing. The net profit of returning to the mother in a single quarter is 1.3 million yuan (+ 81.8%, 5.5%, 27.9%, respectively). The net profit of non-return is 0.90.9 / 110 million yuan per quarter (+ 21.6%, 6.1%, 29.8%). Research and development expenses decreased by 3.976 million yuan, or 51.4 percent, compared with the same period last year, mainly because the transfer of commissioned processing technology for Imduo products was basically completed at the end of last year. Financial expenses decreased by 7.389 million yuan over the same period last year, mainly due to the increase in bank interest income and the decrease in exchange losses in the current period.
Lay out the construction of vaccine production line to prepare for medium-and long-term development. In June 2020, the company reached an exclusive strategic cooperation with Sri Lankan microorganisms to obtain the global exclusive development, production, use and commercialization of related vaccines. The company plans to purchase real estate for vaccine production line construction, the first phase of the proposed purchase area of about 27400 square meters; the second phase of about 70 mu of land, the total amount is expected to be about 340 million yuan, as soon as possible to establish a production plant that can meet the commercial supply of target products.
New activin is expected to continue to release, the new layout of the field of cardiovascular implantation. There are about 2 million cases of acute heart failure in our country every year. Xinhuo, as a rescue drug for acute heart failure, is suitable for more than 90% of patients. The potential market space of Xinhuo is more than 3 billion, and 2019 enters the health insurance catalogue and is expected to continue to release. The company invests in Beijing Amet, holding 9.86%, and arranges cardiovascular implant devices. After the successful listing of Amet products in the future, it is expected to become a new growth point of the company's performance.
Profit forecast and investment advice. Considering the epidemic situation and the price reduction factors, it is predicted that the return net profit of the company from 2020 to 2022 is 390 million yuan, 460 million yuan and 560 million yuan respectively, and the compound growth rate of return net profit in the next three years is about 21%. Consider the volume effect of the company's new activin into the new health insurance and the company's layout in the field of cardiovascular implants, and maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: vaccine production line construction is not as expected, vaccine profitability is not as expected, COVID-19 vaccine research and development failure risk.