This report is read as follows:
The volume of cement is obvious under the low-end base effect, and the volume price outlook from Q4 to 2021 is optimistic; the real estate carry-over is sound, but the gross profit margin is affected by high land prices, and the impairment base in 2019 is high or alleviate the performance pressure in 2020.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. The company's revenue in the first three quarters of 2020 was 71.8 billion yuan, an increase of 6.64 percent. The return net profit of 2.761 billion yuan is reduced by 26.91%, which is in line with the expectation. Considering the high cost of the real estate carry-over project, the company's EPS forecast for 2020-2022 is reduced to 0.29 (- 0.08) / 0.37 (- 0.07) / 0.42 (- 0.07) yuan. Considering that the performance in 2020 is mainly affected by the epidemic, the company's core region of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region is full of long-term potential, and the company's internal integration and optimization is gradually improved. Therefore, the target price is maintained at 4.77 yuan, corresponding to the PE of 16.45 12.89 Unix 11.36 times from 2020 to 2022, and the "overweight" rating is maintained.
The amount of cement Q3 at low base is obvious. It is estimated that the sales of Q3 cement clinker is about 34.72 million tons, a sharp increase of nearly 20% over the same period last year, leading to a return to positive growth in the first three quarters. Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional demand in the fourth quarter is expected to continue to enter the process of acceleration; Q4 in last year's air early warning brought about by the low base effect, the growth rate should maintain an advantage.
Q4 cement profitability is expected to climb another tall building. It is estimated that the average cement price of the company in the first three quarters is about 324 yuan / ton with a drop of 28 yuan, and the net profit per ton is about 44 yuan / ton. at present, the cement price in the company's core market lags behind the start-up of the price, but under the support of strong demand mainly from key projects, Q4 to 2021H1 has an optimistic outlook.
The carry-over of real estate is sound, and the impairment of Q4 is a drag or decrease. The pace of real estate carry-over is relatively steady, but the gross profit margin shows a certain pressure mainly affected by high land acquisition costs, benefiting from the project layout mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River Delta, strong sales rebate, property and other building materials are obviously affected by the epidemic, but the large impairment of 2019Q4 may bring a low base effect for the company's growth rate in 2020.
Risk tips: raw material cost risk, domestic monetary policy real estate policy risk.