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海宁皮城(002344):前三季度净利润下滑30.8% 后续关注业态转型升级成效

Haining Picheng (002344): the net profit fell by 30.8% in the first three quarters, followed by the effectiveness of format transformation and upgrading.

中金公司 ·  Oct 30, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The results in the first three quarters of 2020 were lower than we expected.

The company announced its results for the first three quarters of 2020: revenue was 989 million yuan, down 5.9% from the same period last year; net profit from its mother was 168 million yuan, down 30.8% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.13 yuan per share; and net profit after deducting 142 million yuan, down 33.6% from the same period last year, slightly lower than our expectations. the main reason is that the company has introduced greater rent relief and market support concessions to boost market confidence under the impact of the epidemic.

On a quarterly basis, 2020Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue is-22.1% and net profit is-22.1%, 17.7%, 22.6% and-32.8%, 14.7%, 73.0%, respectively.

Trend of development

1. Revenue in the first three quarters was-5.9% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the revenue growth rate of Q3 is-22.6%, which is significantly lower than that of Q2. We expect the company's property rental and management income to remain under pressure due to the overall downward trend in the physical professional market and the epidemic. The company actively promotes the development of the major health area of the second main business, which is expected to open up new performance growth space, but we expect that the revenue growth of the main leather industry will still be under pressure due to the impact of the macro environment in the short term.

2. Profitability has declined, and cost control has achieved certain results. In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin fell 15.3ppt to 39.7% year-on-year, a relatively significant decline, of which the gross profit margin fell 26.6ppt to 26.2% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. On the expense side, the company has taken fee reduction measures to achieve certain results. In the first three quarters, the sales expense rate dropped to 5.1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the reduction in marketing activities of subsidiaries; the management and R & D expense rate decreased by 1.5ppt to 6.7% compared with the same period last year; and the financial expense rate decreased by 0.3ppt to 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In the end, the net profit margin in the first three quarters fell 6.1ppt to 17.0% year-on-year, and the net profit margin after deducting non-profit margin fell 6.0ppt to 14.4% year-on-year.

3. Follow up to pay attention to the transformation and upgrading of the company's main leather industry and the progress of the layout of the large health industry. 1) Leather main business online integration and format upgrading: the company accelerates the online integration process, cooperates with Douyin to set up Douyin e-commerce industrial base, and reaches strategic cooperation with BABA and goes online in Haining Picheng Taobaoyun market. in addition, the company officially launched the "Picheng Yunpai" e-commerce platform on August 5, and the first batch of merchants settled in more than 6000, we expect to promote the company's online and offline fusion ecosystem. 2) anchoring Great Health as the second main business direction: the company comprehensively adjusts the core management team, organization and business framework of the rehabilitation hospital, and Yihejiayuan formally obtains the medical institution license of the nursing home. Follow-up needs to continuously track the effectiveness of the company's transformation and upgrading and the progress of new business.

Profit forecast and valuation

Based on the downward pressure on the company's main business, we cut our earnings forecast for 2020-21 by 17.8% to 0.15 yuan and 0.16 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 27 times 2021 / 26 times earnings. To maintain the neutral rating, due to the adjustment of earnings forecasts, we lowered our target price by 5% to 4.33 yuan, corresponding to 2020 swap / 28 times earnings in 2021, which has 5.4% upside compared to the current stock price.

Risk.

Competition in the industry continues to intensify, and the progress of the Great Health business is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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