Haining Picheng (002344): the net profit fell by 30.8% in the first three quarters, followed by the effectiveness of format transformation and upgrading.

中金公司 · Oct 30, 2020 00:00 · Researches

　　2020 前三季度业绩低于我们预期

　　公司公布2020 前三季度业绩：收入9.89 亿元，同比下降5.9%；归母净利润1.68 亿元，同比下降30.8%，对应每股盈利0.13 元；扣非后净利润1.42 亿元，同比下降33.6%，略低于我们预期，主因公司在疫情影响下为提振市场信心出台较大力度租金减免及市场扶持优惠。

　　分季度看，2020Q1/Q2/Q3 营收同比分别-22.1%/+17.7%/-22.6%；净利润同比分别-32.8%/-14.7%/-73.0%。

　　发展趋势

　　1、前三季度营收同比-5.9%。其中Q3 营收增速-22.6%，环比Q2大幅下降。我们预计受实体专业市场整体下行趋势以及疫情影响，公司物业租赁及管理收入仍然承压。公司积极推进第二主业大健康领域的发展，有望打开新的业绩增长空间，但我们预计短期内受到宏观环境影响，皮革主业营收增长仍将承压。

　　2、盈利能力有所下滑，费用管控取得一定成效。前三季度毛利率同比下降15.3ppt 至39.7%，降幅较为明显，其中单三季度毛利率同比下降26.6ppt 至26.2%。费用端来看，公司采取降费措施取得一定成效，前三季度销售费用率同比下降3.2ppt 至5.1%，主要系子公司营销活动费用减少所致；管理及研发费用率同比下降1.5ppt至6.7%，财务费用率同比下降0.3ppt 至0.1%。最终前三季度净利润率同比下降6.1ppt 至17.0%，扣非后净利润率同比下降6.0ppt至14.4%。

　　3、后续关注公司皮革主业转型升级及大健康产业布局进展。1）皮革主业线上融合及业态升级：公司加速线上融合进程，与抖音合作设立抖音电商产业基地，与阿里巴巴达成战略合作并上线海宁皮城淘宝云市场，此外公司于8 月5 日正式上线“皮城云批”电子商务平台，首批入驻商户达6,000 余家，我们预计有望促进公司线上线下融合生态圈打造。2）锚定大健康为第二主业方向：公司全面调整康复医院的核心管理团队和组织及业务框架，颐和家园正式取得护理院医疗机构许可证。后续需持续跟踪公司转型升级成效及新业务进展。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　基于公司主业下行压力，我们下调2020-21 年盈利预测17.8%/17.6%至0.15 元和0.16 元，当前股价对应2020/2021 年27倍/26 倍市盈率。维持中性评级，由于盈利预测调整，我们下调目标价5%至4.33 元，对应2020/2021 年28 倍/28 倍市盈率，较当前股价有5.4%的上行空间。

　　风险

　　行业竞争持续加剧，大健康业务进展不及预期。

The results in the first three quarters of 2020 were lower than we expected.

The company announced its results for the first three quarters of 2020: revenue was 989 million yuan, down 5.9% from the same period last year; net profit from its mother was 168 million yuan, down 30.8% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.13 yuan per share; and net profit after deducting 142 million yuan, down 33.6% from the same period last year, slightly lower than our expectations. the main reason is that the company has introduced greater rent relief and market support concessions to boost market confidence under the impact of the epidemic.

On a quarterly basis, 2020Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue is-22.1% and net profit is-22.1%, 17.7%, 22.6% and-32.8%, 14.7%, 73.0%, respectively.

Trend of development

1. Revenue in the first three quarters was-5.9% compared with the same period last year. Among them, the revenue growth rate of Q3 is-22.6%, which is significantly lower than that of Q2. We expect the company's property rental and management income to remain under pressure due to the overall downward trend in the physical professional market and the epidemic. The company actively promotes the development of the major health area of the second main business, which is expected to open up new performance growth space, but we expect that the revenue growth of the main leather industry will still be under pressure due to the impact of the macro environment in the short term.

2. Profitability has declined, and cost control has achieved certain results. In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin fell 15.3ppt to 39.7% year-on-year, a relatively significant decline, of which the gross profit margin fell 26.6ppt to 26.2% in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. On the expense side, the company has taken fee reduction measures to achieve certain results. In the first three quarters, the sales expense rate dropped to 5.1% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the reduction in marketing activities of subsidiaries; the management and R & D expense rate decreased by 1.5ppt to 6.7% compared with the same period last year; and the financial expense rate decreased by 0.3ppt to 0.1% compared with the same period last year. In the end, the net profit margin in the first three quarters fell 6.1ppt to 17.0% year-on-year, and the net profit margin after deducting non-profit margin fell 6.0ppt to 14.4% year-on-year.

3. Follow up to pay attention to the transformation and upgrading of the company's main leather industry and the progress of the layout of the large health industry. 1) Leather main business online integration and format upgrading: the company accelerates the online integration process, cooperates with Douyin to set up Douyin e-commerce industrial base, and reaches strategic cooperation with BABA and goes online in Haining Picheng Taobaoyun market. in addition, the company officially launched the "Picheng Yunpai" e-commerce platform on August 5, and the first batch of merchants settled in more than 6000, we expect to promote the company's online and offline fusion ecosystem. 2) anchoring Great Health as the second main business direction: the company comprehensively adjusts the core management team, organization and business framework of the rehabilitation hospital, and Yihejiayuan formally obtains the medical institution license of the nursing home. Follow-up needs to continuously track the effectiveness of the company's transformation and upgrading and the progress of new business.

Profit forecast and valuation

Based on the downward pressure on the company's main business, we cut our earnings forecast for 2020-21 by 17.8% to 0.15 yuan and 0.16 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to 27 times 2021 / 26 times earnings. To maintain the neutral rating, due to the adjustment of earnings forecasts, we lowered our target price by 5% to 4.33 yuan, corresponding to 2020 swap / 28 times earnings in 2021, which has 5.4% upside compared to the current stock price.

Risk.

Competition in the industry continues to intensify, and the progress of the Great Health business is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

海宁皮城(002344)：前三季度净利润下滑30.8% 后续关注业态转型升级成效

Haining Picheng (002344): the net profit fell by 30.8% in the first three quarters, followed by the effectiveness of format transformation and upgrading.

Risk Disclaimer

Statement