Core ideas:
Q3 revenue and profit in a single quarter is the same as the previous year, and the annual performance is sound and good. The company's 20Q1-Q3 realized revenue of 14.827 billion yuan, with a decrease of 8.07%, net profit of 569 million yuan with a decrease of 9.26%, and non-return net profit of 534 million yuan with a decrease of 4.49%. From a quarterly point of view, Q1-Q3 achieved operating income of 472 million yuan, 53.3 million yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of-19%, 3%, 1%, 1.84 million, and 1.97 million, respectively, compared with a year-on-year growth rate of-30%, 12% and 1%. The gross profit margin / net profit margin of 20Q1-Q3 is 10.45% / 3.88% respectively, which is higher than that of the same period last year. As a result, the increase of net profit margin is less than that of gross profit margin due to the increase of expense rate. On a quarterly basis, the gross profit of Q1-Q3 is 11.71%, 8.96%, 10.88%, an increase of 1.51/0.36/2.48pct compared with the same period last year. The net operating cash flow of Q1-Q3 was 233 million yuan, an increase of about 1.5 billion yuan over the same period last year.
The business structure has been continuously optimized, and the volume of capital construction orders has been expanded at a high speed. The amount of new contracts signed by Q1-Q3 in the past 20 years was 14.878 billion yuan, an increase of 29.35 percent. From a quarterly point of view, the newly signed contract amount of Q1-Q3 is RMB 24.11 million, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of-23% and 130%, respectively. The decline in Q3 contract amount is mainly due to the high amount of housing construction orders in the same period last year. From the point of view of the order structure, the contract amount of Q1-Q3 housing construction, infrastructure engineering, professional engineering and architectural decoration in the past 20 years was 114.2 million yuan, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of + 14.3%, + 262.7%, + 99.7% and-72.6%, respectively.
Profit forecast and investment advice. In order to promote the company's steel structure assembly business development, Longyuanming, a wholly owned subsidiary of the company, plans to invest in the construction of prefabricated construction science and technology industrial park project in Xuancheng Economic and technological Development Zone, which is divided into two phases, with a total investment of about 1 billion yuan in the first phase and about 500 million yuan in the second phase. Research and development of high-performance steel structure fully assembled building product system S-SYSTEM, power EPC integrated construction services. In the future, it is expected to accelerate the development of steel structure assembly business and cultivate new performance growth points through traditional construction and PPP project resources. It is estimated that the company's 20-22 net profit will be 1.05 billion yuan, 1.25 billion yuan and 1.46 billion yuan respectively, giving the company 11 times the PE valuation of the 21-year industry average, with a "buy" rating of 8.96 yuan per share.
Risk hint: PPP industry policy adjustment risk, assembly business promotion is not as expected risk.
