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豆神教育(300010):线下疫情影响大线上快速发展 长期增长潜力大

國泰君安 ·  Nov 1, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Investment points: Investment advice: The company's short-term performance has been greatly affected by the epidemic, but the long-term growth logic has not been changed. The company concentrates its efforts on developing large languages, and has obvious competitive advantages in terms of teams, courses, salary, etc., and has developed rapidly online, resumed offline expansion, and the company's performance can be expected to grow. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the 2020-2022 EPS was lowered to -0.06 (-0.23) /0.32 (-0.15) /0.40 (-0.29) yuan. Referring to the valuation of K12 extracurricular training companies, combined with the high growth of the company's language business, 60 times PE was given in 2021, and the target price was lowered to 19.2 yuan to maintain “increased holdings”. Performance fell slightly short of expectations, and non-language operations dragged down overall performance. Doushen Education's operating income for the first three quarters of 2020 was 1,303 billion yuan, -1.65% year-on-year; net profit loss was 93 million yuan, and profit for the first three quarters of 2019 was 60 million yuan. Quarterly outlook: 2020Q3 revenue was 590 million yuan, +39.74% year on year; net profit was 0.1 billion yuan, -94.03% year over year. Offline business in major languages has been greatly affected, and online is developing rapidly. 2020Q3, the cumulative number of students enrolled in the current term was 95,000, +121.79% over the same period, including 33,000 offline and 610,000 online. The number of students enrolled in the “online six-person small class” model has reached 6,801, and ARPU's branch business has reached 11,400 yuan/person. Currently, the number of current students has increased by 10% from month to month. It is estimated that the model will contribute 150 to 250 million yuan in revenue in 2021. The probability that the fixed increase plan revisions will be implemented has increased, and equity incentives have shown confidence in the growth of major languages. The company revised the fixed increase plan and changed from 18 months of locked price issuance to 6 months of inquiry distribution, increasing the probability of implementation. At the same time, the company disclosed the equity incentive plan, and the revenue assessment target showed management's confidence in the continued growth of major languages. Risk warning: The risk of increased competition in the industry determines the risk that the level of improvement falls short of expectations.

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