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凯迪股份(605288):三季度汇兑损失影响业绩 股权激励落地体现长期发展信心

西南證券 ·  Oct 31, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Performance summary: The company achieved revenue of 81 million yuan in the first three quarters of 2020, down 6.5% year on year, net profit to mother 110 million yuan, down 27.8% year on year; net profit after deducting net profit of 95.12 million yuan, down 27.3% year on year. The company achieved revenue of 320 million yuan in the third quarter, up 10.9% year on year; net profit to mother was 37.15 million yuan, down 13.5% year on year; net profit after deduction was 30.53 million yuan, down 20.4% year on year. The company's operations improved markedly in the third quarter, and the appreciation of the RMB had a big impact on the company's third quarter results. The overseas epidemic gradually recovered in the third quarter, demand for smart homes, the company's main business recovered, and the company returned to full production. Revenue increased from 250 million in Q2 to 320 million in Q3. However, due to exchange losses caused by the appreciation of RMB against the US dollar, the company's financial expenses for the third quarter increased by about 16 million over the same period last year, which greatly affected the company's profit performance. With the first phase of the company's new production capacity put into operation in the fourth quarter, the company's current extremely tight product delivery situation is expected to ease to a certain extent, and performance is expected to continue to improve month-on-month. The implementation of the company's equity incentives reflects the company's confidence in long-term development. The company announced the draft restricted stock incentive plan, which plans to grant 899,500 shares to 154 core employees and reserve 224,600 shares. The first fully unlocked assessment target in 2020 was revenue of 1.22 billion, the target of the full unlocked assessment target for the second phase of 2021 was net profit of 170 million yuan or revenue of 1.55 billion, and the target for the third phase of 2022 was net profit of 200 million yuan or revenue of 2.04 billion yuan. The company's revenue target for 2021-2022 reflects the company's high expectations for performance growth in the next two years, and annual revenue is expected to grow at a rate of about 30%. Profit forecasting and investment advice. We are optimistic that the company's expansion of production in the next few years will bring an inflection point in performance growth, and the company's new customer breakthroughs are also expected to continue to advance. The share payment expenses of this incentive plan will be amortized over three years in 2020-2022. In addition, the company's performance will be lowered in 2020, taking into account exchange losses and the impact of the consolidation of projects under construction. The company's net profit is estimated to be 1.65/2.42/310 million yuan respectively in 2020-2022, corresponding to PE37/25/19 times. The company's low performance has passed, and I am optimistic that the company will take off for the second time as a linear driver and maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: the risk of trade frictions between China and the US; the epidemic has repeatedly affected downstream demand; market competition has intensified; the commissioning progress of fund-raising projects falls short of expectations.

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