(1) revenue:
1) pen interaction business: based on the previously predicted painting business, and assuming that other pen interaction business continues to develop rapidly, it is given a growth rate of 84%, 31% and 29% in 20-22 years.
2) Intelligent terminal business: business such as handwriting board is affected by the epidemic this year, and it is obviously beneficial in industries such as education, and flapping robot birds are expected to continue to sell volume in domestic and foreign markets, giving a growth rate of 40%, 30% and 25% for 20-22 years.
3) big data business: the demonstration effect of major customers in hospital, government, finance and other industries is obvious, and the company is expected to continue to expand by virtue of its advantages, giving a growth rate of 29%, 27% and 24% in 20-22 years.
4) face and biometric recognition business: the company has first-mover advantages in channels, products, technology, etc., but considering the relatively high market saturation, it gives a growth rate of 3%, 3% and 3% for 20-22 years.
5) other business: assuming steady development.
(2) Gross profit margin:
1) pen interactive business: the proportion of overseas painting business increased + the proportion of high-end products increased, and the gross profit margin continued to rise, giving 53%, 56% and 58% for 20-22 years.
2) Intelligent terminal business: the product structure and downstream customers are expected to remain unchanged, and the gross profit margin remains stable at 40%, 40% and 40%.
3) big data business: it is expected to remain stable. In the long run, due to the improvement of technological content, there is room for a small improvement, with 31%, 31% and 32%.
4) face and biometric recognition business: it is expected to remain stable. In the long run, the improvement in technology content will bring a small improvement space, giving 56%, 56% and 57%.
5) other business: assume it remains stable.
(3) the rate of main expenses:
Sales expense rate: it will remain high in 2020, and then with the gradual maturity of overseas channels, it is expected that the sales expense rate will gradually decline to 18.8%, 17.9% and 17.0% for 20-22 years.
Management expense rate: the company said that gradually move production, office, etc., out of Beijing, personnel costs are expected to decline, given 20-22 years
7.8%, 7.6%, 7.6%.
R & D expense rate: the company has a large product line, large R & D demand, and R & D investment is expected to continue, giving 12.1%, 12.3% and 12.6% for 20-22 years.
Financial expense rate: the company has sufficient cash and few accounts receivable, so it is expected that there is no large capital demand for the time being, so it is assumed that the financial expenses remain stable, and the opportunity is 20-22 years-0.1%,-0.1%,-0.1%.
(4) profit forecast:
We estimate that the revenue in 20-22 years will be 17.0 PE 21.8 / 2.74 billion yuan, the net profit of return to the mother will be 1.42 Universe 2.2 / 330 million yuan, and the corresponding PE will be 44X/28X/19X.
We select the companies with artificial intelligence as the core business and whose products are oriented to both B-end and C-end as comparable companies, including iFLYTEK, Meiyabak, Jiadu Technology and Hongsoft Technology, respectively. The average PE (Wind consensus expectation) of related companies in 2020 and 2021 is 66x and 46x respectively.
We believe that the company has independent artificial intelligence core technology, leading in the industry, and mature sales channels, and its performance is expected to grow rapidly, driven by the drawing board business, so it is comparable with the above-mentioned companies. At present, the company's valuation is significantly lower than the industry average, so it maintains a "recommended" rating.
Risk hint: sales of some subdivided products fall short of expectations, and B-end customer demand falls short of expectations.