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格尔软件(603232):Q3单季收入大幅增长 景气度向上持续验证

天風證券 ·  Oct 29, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Incident on October 28, the company released its three-quarter report. The first three quarters achieved operating income of 176 million yuan, an increase of 16.07% over the previous year; net profit loss attributable to owners of the parent company was 33.7398 million yuan. The sharp increase in revenue in Q3 in a single quarter, and the continued improvement in advance revenue confirms the industry's prosperity. The company achieved revenue growth of 16.07% in the first three quarters. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 64 million dollars in a single quarter, an increase of 54.3% over the previous year. Q3 revenue increased sharply in a single quarter, and performance continued to improve. At the same time, advance accounts (the latest category “contract liabilities”) reached 190 million, an increase of about 138% over the previous year (Q3/Q2/Q1, up 0.43/0.33/0.03 billion in a single quarter, respectively), and changes in the Q3 single-quarter forecasting continued to improve, once again indicating that the prosperity of the industry continued to improve. The company's losses in the first three quarters were mainly related to the epidemic in the first quarter and the rapid expansion of personnel. At the same time, in order to seize the development opportunities of rising industry prosperity, the three-fee rate was still high. Innovation will drive rapid growth in performance over the next three years, and zero trust will drive medium- to long-term business model changes. The company has promoted information security products in fields such as party, government, military, and enterprise all year round, and has a rich base of customer trust. It is expected that the rapid growth in performance over the next three years driven by credit innovation is a probable event. At the same time, the company continues to strengthen solutions in the field of zero trust and promote the implementation of zero trust pilot projects. Looking ahead to the next three to five years, the general trend of the zero trust industry, we are optimistic that the company will become China's Okta and achieve a change in business model from products to SaaS. The investment proposal takes into account that the company's personnel growth is still in a period of rapid expansion, that the company's expense ratio will be in a high position in the future, and the time for future credit and innovation implementation to confirm revenue, we have lowered our profit forecast. Revenue for 20-22 was reduced from 6.21/9.63/1,444 million yuan to 5.4/889/1,336 million yuan, and net profit was reduced from 1.25/214/330 million yuan to 1/175/307 million, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: if the epidemic continues for longer, the domestic substitution process falls short of expectations, the development of the zero trust industry falls short of expectations, and market competition

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