3Q20 revenue is-12% year-on-year, performance is-25% year-on-year, gross profit margin is high, 3Q2020 company revenue is 56.73 billion yuan, year-on-year-11.8%, of which the park settlement income is 26.11 billion yuan, year-on-year + 37.1%; net profit is 7.28 billion yuan,-25.3%; non-parent net profit is 7.1 billion yuan, year-on-year-26.8%; basic earnings per share is 1.84 yuan, year-on-year-24.9%. The gross profit margin of sales and the net profit rate of return to the mother are 42.4% and 12.8% respectively, respectively, compared with the same period last year + 2.0pct and-2.3pct, respectively; the total expense rates of the three items are 14.4%, year-on-year + 4.3pct, mainly due to the financial rate + 5.1pct.
The amount of accounts received in advance at the end of 2020Q3 was 120.1 billion yuan,-11.1% compared with the same period last year, covering 1.8 times the settlement income of real estate.
3Q20 sales 60.1 billion, year-on-year-40%, active land acquisition, land / sales area ratio for 154%3Q2020 company to achieve sales of 60.09 billion yuan, year-on-year-40.3%; of which real estate sales of 30.92 billion yuan, year-on-year-60.6%; park settlement income of 26.11 billion yuan, year-on-year + 37.1%; other business 3.06 billion yuan, year-on-year + 0.6%.
The real estate sales area is 328.7 million square meters,-63.9% compared with the same period last year, and the average sales price is 9406 yuan / flat, + 9.1% compared with the same period last year. 3Q2020's out-of-town sales area and settlement area accounted for 58% and 52% respectively, compared with the same period last year-4.2pct and + 24.8 PCT, respectively; around Nanjing, around Hangzhou and around Zhengzhou accounted for 12%, 9% and 18%, respectively. The amount of land obtained by 3Q2020 Company is 25.5 billion yuan, of which 66% of commercial real estate and related business acquisition has slowed down; the land acquisition area is 5.07 million square meters; the average land price is 5025 yuan per square meter; the land acquisition / sales amount ratio is 42%; the land acquisition / sales area ratio is 154%; and the average land acquisition / sales price ratio is 27%.
With the continuous expansion of deep ploughing metropolitan area and industrial new town projects, and the gradual landing of commercial business in industrial metropolitan areas, the company adheres to the core metropolitan area focus strategy and creates a "333 N" core metropolitan area pattern, 20H1 has added 176 new enterprises into the park, and the newly signed investment is 62.46 billion yuan. In terms of commercial real estate, the company implements the three new strategies of "new model, new field and new region". 3Q2020 has acquired four commercial projects, namely, Nanjing Campus, Zhongbei Road in Wuhan, Shenha Financial and Technology City in Harbin and Baietan project in Guangzhou. In addition, the company won the bid for a project agent construction service for the whole process management of the China Merchants Bank global headquarters building project, and targeted a pre-service provider for the urban renewal project to provide comprehensive services for the government's continuous land collection and storage and Weiyuan Island land preparation project.
The payback rate has improved, the debt ratio has declined, and the financing channels have been unblocked. The asset-liability ratio of the company at the end of 2020Q3 is 82.1%, year-on-year-2.9pct, and the net debt ratio is 190.4%, year-on-year-12.4pct. 3Q2020 company sales rebate 43.35 billion yuan, year-on-year-31.3%; sales payback rate of 72.2%, year-on-year + 9.4pct. At the end of 2020Q3, the company's interest-bearing debt balance was 211.8 billion yuan, + 18.9% compared with the same period last year. From March to April, the company issued 1 billion / 5 / 5.5% and 500 million / 5 / 5.17% winning votes successively. It is expected that with the steady development of the company's strategic cooperation with Ping an, the company's financing environment and debt structure will continue to be optimized.
Investment advice: declining performance, improved payback rate, maintain "strong push" rating Huaxia Happiness as China's leading industrial new town operator, relying on the leading market-oriented operation mechanism of PPP, in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta and other regions in-depth layout of industrial new towns and industrial towns, with good government relations and incremental land acquisition capacity. The proportion of out-of-town sales of the company continues to increase and land acquisition accelerates. At the same time, the safe increase of holdings fully shows the recognition of the company's business model and value, and is expected to enhance the company's financing capacity. Taking into account the lower-than-expected progress of the company's real estate settlement and the downward profit margin, we adjusted our earnings per share forecast for 2020-22 to 3.19,3.35,3.83 yuan (originally 4.11,4.52,4.96 yuan), corresponding to 20-year PE4.5 times, lowering the target price to 20.00 yuan (the original target price is 24.66 yuan), maintaining the "push" rating.
Risk hint: the impact of COVID-19 's epidemic situation exceeded expectations, and real estate regulation and control policies tightened more than expected.