This report is read as follows:
As the leader of assembly design, the application rate of assembly steel structure design is the most mature and widespread. More than 80% of the projects include assembly design, and the proportion of revenue is about 40%, which is only 13 times lower than that of the company.
Main points of investment:
Maintain and increase holdings. In the first three quarters, revenue was 1.06 billion yuan (- 8.9%) and net profit was 149 million yuan (+ 12.2%), slightly lower than expected due to fluctuations in the share price of indirectly invested Science and Technology Innovation Board stock. Maintain the forecast that the EPS for 2020-22 will be 0.88 Plus 1.11 Placement 1.38 Yuan, the growth rate of 2226 Placement is 24%, and maintain the target price of 20.77 Yuan, corresponding to the target price of 23.6 Plus 18.7 Plus PE in 2020-21-22, maintaining an increase in holdings.
The growth rate of Q2 deduction continued to pick up, and the operating cash flow improved. 1) Q1-Q3 single-quarter revenue growth rate-29.2 pesque 1.9%; homecoming net profit growth-12.3 pesque 7.1% maxim 7.1% Q3 decline due to indirect investment Science and Technology Innovation Board stock price fluctuations; deducting non-growth rate-51 shock 9.8 shock 17.7%; 2) the first three quarters gross profit margin 28.1% (+ 2.4pct); net profit margin 14.1% (+ 2.2pct) 3) four rates 14.6% (+ 0.9pct), of which management 8.9% (+ 0.6pct) / R & D 5.3% (+ 0.1pct) / finance 0.4% (+ 0.2pct); 4) net operating cash flow-46 million yuan (- 78 million yuan in the same period last year) due to maturity and acceptance of commercial acceptance bills received by the parent company last year.
The application rate of prefabricated steel structure design is the most mature and widespread, and the bidding for a site in Wuhan will vigorously expand the market in central China. 1) the company actively applies BIM (with a special BIM R & D center) to improve its collaborative design capability, and its Kunshan project recently won the second prize in the BIM Application Competition held by the China Survey and Design Association. 2) it has special design technology and R & D achievements including prefabricated PC structure / steel structure / hybrid structure, and independently develops dozens of core technologies. 3) more than 80% of the projects include prefabricated design, and nearly 100% of concrete residential projects adopt prefabricated technology; the income from special design of prefabricated buildings accounts for about 40%, and we expect steel structure design to account for about 20-30% of the total income. 4) winning a land use right in Wuhan for the construction of an office R & D center building will deeply participate in the construction of Wuhan and Central China, facilitate the building of the design industrial chain and promote the development of cultural innovation and other related industries, and achieve deep integration of design and industry; 5) rich talent reserves; actively promote the layout of medical production lines; 6) PE is only 13 times (an average of 41 times in recent 5 years) far lower than 31 times that of Huayang International.
Catalyst: policy supports core risks such as the enhancement of prefabricated steel structure and the improvement of prefabricated design capability: the promotion of steel structure is not as expected, the shackles of traditional construction methods, the weakening of technological advantages, etc.