share_log

豆神教育(300010):大语文招生依旧高增 激励方案为经营节奏定调

國信證券 ·  Oct 30, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Affected by the closure of the business due to the pandemic, the parent's performance in the first three quarters fell 257% in the first three quarters. The company achieved revenue of 1,303 billion yuan/ -1.65%, a loss of 93.5 million yuan/ -257%, deducted non-performance losses of 115 million yuan, and EPS of -0.11 yuan. Q3 achieved revenue of 590 million yuan/ +40% in a single quarter, with a net performance of 1.22 million yuan/ -94%. Enrollment in major languages is still growing. Traditional main industries such as education informatization are expected to be under pressure. In terms of business, big languages achieved revenue of 325 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 36% over the previous year, and an estimated net profit of about 54 million million+. A year-on-year decline is expected, mainly due to product restructuring (the proportion of training system courses with low profit margins increased) and increased teacher reserves; among them, Q3 major languages achieved revenue of 143 million yuan/ +50%, and recovered well after the pandemic. In terms of enrollment data, in the first three quarters, the number of registrations and the cumulative number of students enrolled increased by 74%/124% respectively, maintaining rapid growth, and it is expected that the number of online 6-person small classes will continue to grow. The revenue of the traditional business in the first three quarters was about 978 million yuan/ -10%, and the revenue and performance side performance were under pressure. The gross margin for the reporting period was 27.26%, -12.29pct year on year, and the expense ratio for the period increased by 3.24pct year on year. Among them, the /management/R&D/finance rate increased by 4.43/2.34/0.15 pct respectively, and the sales rate decreased by 3.69 pct. The amount of capital raised in the new financing plan has been drastically increased, and the conditions for the ownership of equity incentives are in line with the management of the refinancing plan, which is expected to be adjusted. Currently, the war-locked price distribution model has basically stagnated, so the company's fixed increase adjustments are also anticipated. The amount of capital raised this time is expected to be 2 billion dollars, an increase of 45% compared to the July plan. The availability of capital will provide sufficient ammunition for business development. Due to relevant policy guidelines, President Dou Xin did not directly participate in this release. The conditions for the ownership of the equity incentive plan are that, based on '19, the revenue growth rate for 21-23 was not less than 100%/200%/350%, respectively. Short-term revenue growth was disrupted by the pandemic and financing policies, and the revenue growth rate was lower than previously optimistic expectations, yet CAGR (4) could still reach 46%, showing management's confidence in the growth of the language circuit. Furthermore, after the equity incentive plan is settled and vested, Dou Xin's shareholding ratio will be even closer to the controlling shareholder Chi Yanming. Risk warning: Risks such as failure in performance betting, slow divestment of traditional businesses, and impairment of goodwill. The short pace is disrupted, the mid-tier logic remains unchanged, and the “buy” rating is maintained. The company's overall EPS for 20-22 is expected to be -0.08/0.32/0.51 yuan, of which the education sector's Chinese Future+Centennial Talent 20-22 EPS is 0.21/0.39/0.55 yuan respectively (of which there was a slight reduction in 20-21 and an increase in the profit forecast for 22), and the corresponding valuation for the main education business was 68/37/26x, respectively. The company's mid-line logic did not change, maintaining the “buy” rating.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment