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世联行(002285):三季度业绩正增长 大横琴成为实控人 城市服务异地扩张

興業證券 ·  Nov 1, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment events: On the evening of October 30, the company released its three-quarter report. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 1,678 billion yuan, an increase of 6.78% over the previous year; realized net profit of 0.06 billion yuan, an increase of 89.11%; in the first three quarters of 2020, the company achieved operating income of 4.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.21%, and net profit of 69 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 204.48%. Comment: The third quarter's performance was growing, and the company's operations continued to improve. In the third quarter in a single quarter, the company achieved revenue of 1,678 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.78% (-2.9% in Q2), and the growth rate was corrected; net profit of the mother was 0.06 billion yuan, up 89.11% year on year (+1.5% year on year in Q2), and operations continued to improve. In the first three quarters, the company achieved operating income of 4.478 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 4.21% (-9.8% compared to 2020H1), net profit of 69 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 204.48% (-218.8% compared to 2020H1), and the decline narrowed. By business: (1) The transaction service business has maintained steady growth. The transaction service business achieved revenue of 3,044 billion yuan in the first three quarters, +6.55% over the same period, mainly because the company actively integrated channels to develop and expand the scale of distribution and direct sales business. The current Internet+ business revenue increased 28.54% year on year, and the growth rate continued to increase from the first half of the year. (2) The decline in post-transaction service business narrowed. Post-transaction service revenue for the first three quarters was 291 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 54.03%, mainly due to the company's continued strict risk control and steady lending, and financial services revenue fell 54.99% year on year; affected by the epidemic, decoration business revenue fell 52.34% year on year, and the decline was narrower than in the first half of the year. (3) Asset management and asset operation business declined slightly. The asset management service business revenue for the first three quarters was 633 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.82%. Revenue from asset management services was 455 million yuan, down 5.05% from the previous year, mainly due to the decline in the company's asset investment service revenue due to the impact of the epidemic and the market. Da Hengqin became the actual controller of the company, demonstrating confidence in the repurchase of shares. On July 1 and July 19, World Federation China and Huaju World respectively transferred shares to Grand Hengqin. After the two transfers were completed, Grand Hengqin held a total of 15.9% of the company's shares; on August 4, Grand Hengqin signed a voting rights entrustment agreement with the company. Grand Hengqin owned 29.9% of the company's voting rights, becoming the company's single shareholder with the highest voting share ratio, and the company's development entered a new stage. On September 23, the company announced that it plans to repurchase 1-2% of shares for employee incentives. As of October 16, the company had completed the repurchase of 1.0873% of the shares, and the company's repurchase process was over half way through. Urban services are expanding from other places, and the advantages of “state-owned platform+listed platform” are obvious. After Da Heng Qin joined, the company positioned itself as a “big deal plus big asset management” and developed in the direction of a comprehensive urban operator, with a breakthrough in business boundaries. Recently, the company has successively signed strategic cooperation agreements with the People's Government of Nankang District of Ganzhou City and Yancheng Chengnan New Area Development and Construction Co., Ltd. to carry out in-depth cooperation on comprehensive cultural tourism development, large urban asset management business, and industrial investment promotion. The company's urban services have begun to expand offsite, and the city's large asset management business will enter the fast track. Investment suggestions: World Federation Bank's “big transaction+big asset management” main business is clearly positioned, and the “state-owned platform+listing platform” has obvious advantages. It relies on the resources of the Grand Hengqin Group and has outstanding strength in expanding from other locations. We expect the World Federation Bank's EPS for 2020 and 2021 to be 0.05 yuan and 0.07 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price on October 30, PE is 107 times and 76 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The transaction service business falls short of expectations; the risk of continued loss in the apartment management business.

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