Key investment points The company signed a new contract amount of 2.73 billion yuan in the first half of 2020. Among them, Q2 single-quarter orders have achieved positive growth, and the growth rate has rebounded by about 23 pcts from month to month. It is expected that with the full resumption of work and production in the industry and further restoration of infrastructure and real estate investment, the growth rate of Q3 orders may pick up further. In the first three quarters of 2020, the company achieved total revenue of 3.736 billion yuan, an increase of 5.0% over the previous year, and achieved a correction. Among them, Q3 achieved revenue of 1.745 billion yuan, an increase of 33.91% over the previous year, which is significantly faster than in the first half of the year. We believe that the company's revenue growth rate continues to pick up month by month. The main reason is that the order growth rate continued to pick up and spread to the revenue side. At the same time, the company had plenty of orders in hand, which accelerated the release of performance in the third quarter. In the first three quarters of 2020, the company achieved a comprehensive gross profit margin of 17.32%, a decrease of 0.08 pct compared to the same period last year, and a net profit margin of 5.53%, a decrease of 0.17 pct compared to the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, the company's gross margins in Q1, Q2, and Q3 were 17.37%, 17.60%, and 17.08%, respectively, with year-on-year changes of 0.59pct, -0.21pct, and -0.30pct, respectively. The company's expense ratio for the first three quarters of 2020 was 8.60%, an increase of 0.66pct over the previous year, mainly due to an increase in R&D expenses and management expenses. Among them, the management expense ratio was 2.95%, an increase of 0.73 pct over the previous year, mainly due to increased expenses of new subsidiaries and increased amortization expenses. Asset impairment losses plus credit losses accounted for 1.75%, up 0.43pct from last year. The company's net operating cash flow per share in the first three quarters of 2020 was -0.29 yuan, a decrease of 0.39 yuan/share from last year. The Q3 single quarter's cash flow increased significantly year-on-year. Net operating cash flows per share for Q1, Q2, and Q3 were -0.41 yuan, -0.15 yuan, and 0.25 yuan respectively, with changes of -0.44 yuan, -0.21 yuan, and 0.24 yuan compared with the same period last year. The pay-to-cash ratio was 91.29% and 103.30%, respectively, up 8.34pct and 14.17pct from last year. Profit forecast and rating: We expect the company's net profit to be 0.3 billion yuan, 0.354 billion yuan, and 0.411 billion yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.42 yuan, 0.5 yuan, and 0.58 yuan, respectively. The PE corresponding to the closing price on October 28 is 17.8 times, 15 times, and 13 times, respectively, maintaining a “prudent increase” rating. Risk warning: macroeconomic downside risks, on-hand orders falling short of expectations, slow progress of construction projects, worsening cash flow conditions, bad debt losses exceeding expectations
中装建设(002822):收入利润增速全面转正 现金流有所修复
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