Dashang shares (600694): the epidemic drags down the results of three quarters

中金公司 · Oct 29, 2020 00:00 · Researches

　　1-3Q2020 业绩基本符合我们预期

　　公司公布2020 年三季报业绩：前三季度实现收入59.84 亿元，同比下降64.27%；归母净利润4.41 亿元，同比下降47.27%，扣非归母净利润4.07 亿元，同比下降45.85%，基本符合我们预期，非经常性损益主要源于政府补助，前三季度共计3398.66 万元。分季度看，2020Q1/Q2/Q3 营收同比分别-68.2%/-63.9%/-59.5%，归母净利润同比分别-86.0%/-8.7%/-20.1%，扣非归母净利润同比分别-92.0%/-3.1%/+7.0%，单三季度公司扣非净利润端有所修复。

　　发展趋势

　　1、受执行新会计准则及疫情影响，前三季度营收同比下滑64.27%。

　　单三季度实现营收20.15 亿元，同比下降59.5%。分地区及业态看，营收占比较大的大连地区单三季度百货/超市业态营收同比分别下降87.59%/13.85%，河南地区单三季度百货/超市业态营收同比分别下降94.13%/46.08%，大庆地区单三季度百货/超市业态营收同比分别下降92.96%/20.92%。

　　2、毛利率大幅提升，净利率有所改善，我们预计主因新收入准则影响。前三季度毛利率为49.7%，同比上升23.2ppt；单三季度毛利率49.4%，同比上升23.6ppt，受执行新会计准则影响，毛利率水平提升显著。费用端来看，前三季度费用率同比上升18.3ppt至36.3%，其中销售费用率13.6%，同比上升7.3ppt；管理和研发费用率合记22.6%，同比上升11.0ppt；财务费用率0.1%，同比基本持平。综合影响下，前三季度实现净利率7.4%，同比上升2.4ppt，其中单三季度实现净利率8.1%，同比上升4ppt，净利率水平有所改善。

　　3、后续关注公司经营恢复及基本面改善情况。公司持续优化经营模式，1）到家业务：在新零售快速发展的背景下，公司积极布局消费新趋势，提供3 公里免费配送的到家服务，促进线上和线下的融合；2）线上业务：公司利用先进的技术和平台，探索直播营销和微信小程序等，挖掘私域流量运营；3）线下实体业务：公司积极优化线下门店布局，第三季度关闭大连新玛特百货新华店及大商鲜生新华店。后续关注公司基本面改善状况。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　鉴于行业竞争加剧，下调公司2020/2021 年每股盈利预测4%/5%至1.90/2.43 元，当前股价对应2020/2021 年12.0/9.4 倍市盈率。

　　维持跑赢行业评级，因盈利预测调整下调目标价4%至28.32 元，对应2020/2021 年市盈率14.9/11.7 倍，较当前股价有24.0%上行空间。

　　风险

　　疫情二次爆发风险；行业竞争加剧风险。

1-3Q2020 performance is basically in line with our expectations

The company announced its results for the three quarters of 2020: revenue in the first three quarters was 5.984 billion yuan, down 64.27% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 441 million yuan, down 47.27% from the same period last year; net profit from non-return to home was 407 million yuan, down 45.85% from the same period last year, which is basically in line with our expectations. Non-recurrent profit and loss mainly came from government subsidies, totaling 33.9866 million yuan in the first three quarters. From a quarterly point of view, 2020Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue year-on-year is-68.2%, 63.9%, 59.5%, and net profit, respectively, is-86.0%, 8.7%, 20.1%, and-92.0%, 3.1%, 7.0%, respectively. The company deducts non-net profit in the third quarter of this year.

Trend of development

1. Affected by the implementation of the new accounting standards and the epidemic situation, revenue in the first three quarters decreased by 64.27% compared with the same period last year.

Revenue in the third quarter alone reached 2.015 billion yuan, down 59.5% from the same period last year. In terms of regions and formats, the revenue of department stores / supermarkets in Dalian, which accounts for a large proportion of revenue, decreased by 87.59% and 13.85% respectively in the third quarter compared with the same period last year. In Henan, the revenue of department stores / supermarkets in the third quarter decreased by 94.13% and 46.08% respectively, and that of department stores / supermarkets in Daqing decreased by 92.96% and 20.92% respectively in the third quarter.

2. The gross profit margin has increased significantly and the net profit margin has improved, which we expect to be mainly due to the impact of the new income criteria. The gross profit margin in the first three quarters was 49.7%, up 23.2 ppt from the same period last year; the gross profit margin in the third quarter was 49.4%, an increase of 23.6ppt over the same period last year. Affected by the implementation of the new accounting standards, the gross profit margin increased significantly. On the expense side, the expense rate in the first three quarters increased by 18.3ppt to 36.3% compared with the same period last year, of which the sales expense rate was 13.6%, up 7.3 ppt from the same period last year; the management and R & D expense rate was 22.6%, up 11.0 ppt from the same period last year; and the financial expense rate was 0.1%, which was basically the same as the same period last year. Under the combined influence, the net interest rate reached 7.4% in the first three quarters, up 2.4ppt from the same period last year, of which the net interest rate reached 8.1% in the third quarter, up 4ppt from the same period last year, and the net interest rate level has improved.

3. Pay attention to the recovery of the company's operation and the improvement of its fundamentals. The company continues to optimize its business model: 1) Home business: under the background of the rapid development of new retail, the company actively arranges the new trend of consumption and provides home delivery services with free distribution of 3 kilometers to promote the integration of online and offline; 2) online business: the company uses advanced technology and platforms to explore live marketing and WeChat Mini Programs to tap private traffic operation. 3) offline entity business: the company actively optimized the layout of offline stores and closed down Dalian Xinmatt Xinhua Store and Xiansheng Xinhua Store in the third quarter. Follow up to pay attention to the improvement of the company's fundamentals.

Profit forecast and valuation

In view of the increased competition in the industry, the company lowered its earnings forecast of 4% per share for 2020Universe 2021 to 1.90apiece 2.43 yuan, and the current share price corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 12.0company202021 to 9.4 times.

To maintain the outperforming industry rating, the target price was lowered by 4% to 28.32 yuan due to the adjustment of earnings forecast, corresponding to the price-to-earnings ratio of 14.9% to 2021, which is 24.0% higher than the current stock price.

Risk.

The risk of the second outbreak of the epidemic; industry competition aggravates the risk.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.

大商股份(600694)：疫情拖累三季报业绩

Dashang shares (600694): the epidemic drags down the results of three quarters

Risk Disclaimer

Statement