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深度*公司*康弘药业(002773):第三季度业绩逐步回复 康柏西普国际化进程持续推进

中銀證券 ·  Oct 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  From Q1 to Q3 in 2020, the company achieved operating income of 2,348 million yuan (-2.56%) and net profit of 579 million yuan (+4.8%). The company achieved revenue of 954 million yuan (+7.2%) and net profit of 244 million yuan (15.3%) in a single quarter in Q3. The three major sectors all achieved year-on-year growth, and Compazip continued to be released. The main point supporting the ratings was the response to the third quarter results. All three sectors achieved year-on-year growth. In the first half of 2020, the shutdown of outpatient clinics due to the COVID-19 pandemic had an adverse impact on the company's performance. Outpatient clinics basically resumed work in an orderly manner in the third quarter, and the company's performance gradually recovered. In the third quarter, the company achieved revenue of 954 million yuan, an increase of 7.2% over the previous year. The company's proprietary Chinese medicines, chemicals and biological products sectors all achieved year-on-year revenue growth in the third quarter: the proprietary Chinese medicines sector achieved revenue of 261 million yuan, an increase of 9.15% over the previous year; the chemicals sector achieved revenue of 349 million yuan, an increase of 5.79%; and the biological products sector achieved 343 million yuan, an increase of 6.62% over the previous year. Compazip continues to be released, and there is still great potential for growth. The medical insurance disclosed in November 2019 that the price of Compazip was 4169 yuan per bottle, down 24.2% from the original price. In the third quarter, Composip achieved revenue of 343 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 6.62%, and sales volume increased by as much as 40% year-on-year. Indications included in health care for Compazip include diabetic macular edema (DME), wet age-related macular degeneration (NaMD), and choroidal neovascularization (PMCNV) secondary to pathological myopia. Internationalization continues to be promoted, and the review of the Compasip special test plan has passed the FDA review. The global phase III clinical trial of Compazip ophthalmic injection for the treatment of wet age-related macular degeneration (NaMD) completed the 36th week main endpoint of all participants on September 25. The trial progress was in line with expectations. The company's wholly-owned subsidiary received a notice from the FDA to conduct a special trial plan review for phase III clinical trials of diabetic macular edema (DME), retinal branch venous occlusion (BRVO) and macular edema disease caused by central retinal venous occlusion (CRVO) in the US through Compaxip vitreous ocular injections. The company will carry out follow-up clinical trials in accordance with the relevant regulations and requirements of US drug registration according to the actual situation. The valuation company's performance in the first three quarters was affected by the pandemic, and operating income decreased compared to the same period last year. Based on changes in the industry environment, we have lowered our profit forecast. We expect to achieve net profit in 2020, 2021, and 2022, respectively, of 749 million yuan, 869 million yuan, 1,119 billion yuan, and EPS of 0.857 yuan, 0.995 yuan, and 1.281 yuan, respectively. (In our August 2020 profit forecast, net profit for 2020, 2021, and 2022 is estimated to be 777 million yuan, 964 million yuan, 1,193 million yuan, and EPS 0.89 yuan, 1.103 yuan, and 1.365 yuan, respectively.) The main risks facing ratings Traditional business growth falls short of expectations; hospital outpatient clinics continue to be impacted by the pandemic, and sales of Compasip fell short of expectations; and the results of the global phase III clinical trial for wet age-related macular degeneration (NaMD) fell short of expectations.

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