Hualian Comprehensive Super (600361): the net profit in the first three quarters was + 87.53% compared with the same period last year, focusing on the follow-up operational efficiency and the progress of mergers and acquisitions.

中金公司 · Oct 30, 2020 00:00 · Researches

2020 年前三季度业绩高于我们预期

公司公布2020 前三季度业绩：收入60.88 亿元，同比下降34.45%；归母净利润1.17 亿元，同比增长87.53%，对应每股盈利0.18 元；扣非后净利润0.94 亿元，同比增长74.02%，好于我们预期，主因房租电费、社保减免及财务费用下降。分季度看，2020Q1/Q2/Q3营收同比分别+10.7%/-86.2%/-37.3% ；归母净利润同比分别+35.8/134.4%/413.1%。Q3 净利润增长较快主因政府给予各项补助增加。

发展趋势

1、前三季度营收同比-34.45%。其中Q3 营收同比下降-37.3%，环比Q2 有所向好。分地区看，营收占比较高的华北、西北地区营收分别同比增长16.44%/8.20%，表现较好，但华中、华东地区营收分别下滑18.08%/9.11%，我们预计与区域市场竞争加剧有关。展店方面，前三季度新开/关闭生活超市11/1 家，门店总数较年初净增10 家，截止报告期末公司门店总数173 家（生活超市164 家，高级超市9 家），公司预计Q4 新开生活超市6 家，全年新开门店数预计略低于年初新开约20 家门店的目标。

2、盈利能力改善。前三季度毛利率同比提升10.7ppt 至32.62%，主要受到公司执行新收入政策影响，营业成本大幅下降。在费用端，前三季度销售费用率同比提升7.9ppt 至25.9%，管理费用率同比提升1.2ppt 至3.7%。最终前三季度净利润率同比上升1.3ppt至1.9%，扣非后净利润率同比提升1ppt 至1.5%。

3、后续关注公司生鲜业务、供应链建设及青海华润收购项目进展。

公司加大了工厂化、基地化直采比例，优化采购成本及丰富自采商品品种，并通过导入新激励机制强化生鲜经营能力，我们预期将逐渐提升公司生鲜商品的销售规模和盈利水平。供应链方面，公司加快仓储物流建设，重点区域干仓已正常运行；加快自建生鲜加工配送中心建设，我们预计年内部分区域可开始运营。8 月21 日，公司完成对青海华润万家生活超市100%股权收购，我们认为有利于公司进一步提升青海地区经营规模与市占率，增强市场竞争力。

盈利预测与估值

鉴于公司执行新收入政策导致营收数字下降的影响，我们下调2020-21 年营收预测22.7%/18.7%至78.2 亿/95.5 亿元；考虑疫情期间公司所在民生超市行业业绩向好及公司经营效益提升，上调2020-21 年EPS 预测8.5%/5.5%至0.14 元和0.15 元，当前股价对应2020/2021 年32 倍/30 倍市盈率。维持中性评级，鉴于公司历史盈利水平波动幅度较大，我们维持目标价4.76 元，对应2020/2021年34 倍/32 倍市盈率，较当前股价有8.7%的上行空间。

风险

行业竞争加剧；并购项目业绩增长不及预期。

The results for the first three quarters of 2020 are higher than we expected.

The company announced its results for the first three quarters of 2020: revenue was 6.088 billion yuan, down 34.45% from the same period last year; net profit from its mother was 117 million yuan, up 87.53% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.18 yuan per share; net profit after deducting 94 million yuan, up 74.02% from the same period last year, was better than our expectation, mainly due to the decline in rent and electricity charges, social security waivers and financial expenses. From a quarterly point of view, 2020Q1/Q2/Q3 revenue is + 10.7% Universe 86.2% Universe 37.3%, and homing net profit is + 35.8% Universe 134.4% Plus 413.1% respectively. The rapid growth of Q3 net profit is mainly due to the increase in various subsidies given by the government.

Trend of development

1. Revenue in the first three quarters was-34.45% compared with the same period last year. Among them, Q3 revenue decreased by-37.3% compared with the same period last year, which is better than Q2. From a regional point of view, revenue in North China and Northwest China, which account for a relatively high proportion of revenue, increased by 16.44% and 8.20% respectively compared with the same period last year, with a good performance, but revenue in Central and East China fell by 18.08% and 9.11% respectively, which we expect to be related to increased competition in the regional market. In terms of exhibition stores, in the first three quarters, 11 Universe opened / closed Life supermarket, with a net increase of 10 stores over the beginning of the year. By the end of the reporting period, the company had 173 stores (164 Life supermarkets and 9 high-end supermarkets). The company expects 6 new Life supermarkets to be opened in Q4, and the number of new stores for the whole year is expected to be slightly lower than the target of opening about 20 new stores at the beginning of the year.

2. Improvement of profitability. In the first three quarters, the gross profit margin increased to 32.62% year-on-year, mainly due to the impact of the company's implementation of the new revenue policy, and operating costs fell sharply. On the expense side, the sales expense rate in the first three quarters increased by 7.9ppt to 25.9% compared with the same period last year, and the management expense rate increased by 1.2ppt to 3.7% year-on-year. In the end, net profit margin in the first three quarters rose 1.3ppt to 1.9 per cent year-on-year, while net profit margin after deduction rose 1ppt to 1.5 per cent year-on-year.

3. Follow the company's fresh business, supply chain construction and Qinghai China Resources acquisition project progress.

The company has increased the proportion of factory-based direct mining, optimized procurement costs and enriched the variety of self-collected goods, and strengthened the fresh management capacity by introducing new incentive mechanisms. We expect to gradually improve the sales scale and profitability of the company's fresh goods. In terms of supply chain, the company has accelerated the construction of warehousing and logistics, and the dry warehouses in key areas have been operating normally; to speed up the construction of self-built fresh processing and distribution centers, we expect some areas to start operation this year. On August 21, the company completed the acquisition of 100% equity in Qinghai China Resources Wanjia Life supermarket, which we believe will help the company to further enhance its business scale and market share in Qinghai and enhance its market competitiveness.

Profit forecast and valuation

In view of the impact of the decline in revenue figures as a result of the company's implementation of the new revenue policy, we reduce our revenue forecast for 2020-21 by 22.7% 18.7% to 7.82 billion / 9.55 billion yuan. Considering the improvement of the industry performance of Minsheng supermarket where the company is located and the improvement of the company's operating efficiency during the epidemic, the EPS forecast for 2020-21 has been raised by 8.5% to 0.14 yuan and 0.15 yuan, and the current stock price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 32 times 2021 / 30 times in 2021. To maintain a neutral rating, in view of the large fluctuations in the company's historical earnings level, we maintain the target price of 4.76 yuan, corresponding to a price-to-earnings ratio of 34 times earnings in 2020 / 2021, which is 8.7% higher than the current share price.

Risk

The competition in the industry intensified; the performance growth of M & A projects fell short of expectations.

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华联综超(600361)：前三季度净利润同比+87.53% 关注后续经营提效及并购进展

Hualian Comprehensive Super (600361): the net profit in the first three quarters was + 87.53% compared with the same period last year, focusing on the follow-up operational efficiency and the progress of mergers and acquisitions.

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