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绿地控股(600606)2020年三季报点评:地产基建双轮驱动 业绩累计增速转正

東方證券 ·  Oct 27, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Incident Company released its 2020 three-quarter report. The first three quarters of 2020 achieved revenue of 320.90 billion yuan, an increase of 9.1% over the previous year, and net profit of 12.04 billion yuan, an increase of 1.9% over the previous year. The core view is that the cumulative growth rate of performance has been corrected, and the one-quarter carry-over has accelerated. In the first three quarters of 2020, the year-on-year growth rate of the company's performance increased by 12.7 percentage points compared to the first half of the year, and the cumulative year-on-year correction was achieved. Performance growth was less than revenue, mainly due to the gross profit margin of carry-over projects of 14.1%, down 0.3 percentage points year on year; investment income decreased by 1.8 billion yuan year on year due to large changes in the revaluation value of joint venture control during the same period last year. Real estate and infrastructure contributed 144.6 billion and 147.2 billion dollars in revenue respectively, up 14.6% and 6.0% year on year. Looking at a single quarter, revenue for the third quarter was $111.06 billion, up 20.0% year on year, and net profit was $4.02 billion, up 42.3% year on year. The decline in sales continued to narrow, and the ranking within the industry was stable. In the first three quarters of 2020, the company achieved a total contract sales area of 17.64 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 16.8%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.8 percentage points over the first half of the year; a cumulative contract sales amount of 217.88 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.1%, a year-on-year decrease of 13.6 percentage points over the first half of the year; and an average sales price of 12,376 yuan/square meter, an increase of 11.7% over the previous year. According to data from Corey, as of September, the company ranked 6th and 7th in the country in terms of sales area and value respectively, all in line with the same period last year. The amount of land acquisition equity has grown steadily, and the infrastructure business has expanded vigorously. The company's cumulative equity land investment in the first three quarters of 2020 was 73.1 billion yuan, up 24.8% year on year; equity construction area was 21.96 million square meters, down 16.3% year on year, and the decline continued to narrow; investment intensity was 37.3%, up 3.7 percentage points from the first half of the year. The company's urban layout has been further optimized. Out of 77 land acquisition projects as of September, 40 are located in second-tier cities, and new high-quality projects such as the Yangtze River Delta Green Intelligent Manufacturing Demonstration Zone have been signed. The company's infrastructure industry signed new contracts of 399.1 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2020, an increase of 46% over the previous year, seizing the “two new and one priority” opportunity to sign a number of key projects. Adequate reserves of real estate and infrastructure will fuel the company's later growth. Financial forecasts and investment recommendations maintain the buying rating and maintain the target price of $8.76. We forecast the company's EPS for 2020-2022 to be 1.46/1.74/2.01 yuan. Comparable companies had a valuation of 6X in 2020. We gave the company a 6X valuation in 2020, corresponding to a target price of 8.76 yuan. Risks suggest that real estate sales are growing less than expected. The company's cost control effect falls short of expectations, and there is a risk that profits will decline.

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