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荣盛发展(002146)2020年三季报点评:业绩短期承压 销售稳步增长

華創證券 ·  Oct 24, 2020 00:00  · Researches

In 3Q20, revenue was +12%, performance was -10%, and advance payment coverage was 1.3 times 3Q2020. In 3Q2020, the company achieved operating income of 43.66 billion yuan, +12.4% year-on-year; net profit of 4.4 billion yuan, -9.9% yoy; and basic earnings per share of 1.01 yuan, -9.8% year-on-year. The gross margin and net profit margin were 28.8% and 10.1%, respectively, -2.5pct and -2.5pct, respectively; the third fee rate was 9.6%, -0.2pct year-on-year. As of the end of 2020 H1, the company had received 79.9 billion yuan in advance accounts, -9.5% of the same period last year, which could cover 1.3 times the real estate revenue in 2019. 3Q20 had sales of 73.71 billion yuan, +9% year-on-year, and target sales of 121 billion yuan in 2020, corresponding to +5% of 3Q2020. The company achieved a sales area of 6.714 million square meters, +6.0% year-on-year; sales amount of 73.71 billion yuan, +8.7%; average sales price of 11,000 yuan/square meter, +2% year-on-year; in 2020, the company plans to sign a contract amount of 121 billion yuan, +5% year-on-year. In 2019, the company's new construction area reached 9.443 million square meters, completing 99.0% of the annual plan; the completed area was 6.323 million square meters, completing 73.5% of the annual plan, +2.7% over the same period last year. In 2020, the company plans to repay 96.8 billion yuan in sales, +12.6%; plans to start a new construction area of 9.260 million square meters, -2% year-on-year; and plans to complete an area of 8.873 million square meters, +40% over the same period last year. Considering the company's aggressive completion plans for 2020, the 2020 settlement is expected to grow steadily. The 3Q20 land acquisition/sales area ratio is 90%, the average land acquisition/sales price ratio is 37%, and the debt ratio declined steadily in 3Q2020. The company's land acquisition area is 6.02 million square meters, the year-on-year ratio is -31%, and the equity ratio is 84%; the land acquisition amount is 24.66 billion yuan, -5%; the average land acquisition price is 4,098 yuan/square, +37%; land acquisition amount: 33%; land acquisition/sales area: 90%; average land acquisition price/sales price: 37%. As of the end of 2020H1, the company's land reserve construction area was about 40,36 million square meters, and the land storage structure was reasonable and sufficient. As of the end of 2020Q3, the company's balance ratio and net debt ratio were 82.5% and 88.2% respectively, with a year-on-year ratio of -1.2pct and -10.4pct, respectively. The debt ratio declined steadily. Investment suggestions: Short-term performance is under pressure, sales are growing steadily, and “push-push” rating companies continue to adhere to a fast turnover strategy. A project layout of “two horizontal, two vertical, three clusters” has initially been formed. At the end of 20H1, the company's land reserves were about 40.36 million square meters, fully guaranteeing future development needs, and diversified land acquisition methods effectively controlled costs; at the same time, the company's industrial park expanded rapidly, providing sufficient resources for future real estate development. We maintain the company's earnings per share forecasts for 2020-22 at 2.52, 2.90 yuan, and 3.24 yuan. Currently, the stock price corresponding to 20/21 PE is only 3.1/2.7 times, and the corresponding dividend rate for 2019 has reached 6.1%, maintaining the target price of 13.50 yuan, maintaining the “strong push” rating. Risk warning: The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic has exceeded expectations, and the tightening of real estate regulation policies has exceeded expectations

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