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航民股份(600987):Q3业绩降幅有所收窄 看好Q4印染复苏

廣發證券 ·  Oct 25, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Core point of view: The company announced its 2020 three-quarter report. 2020Q1-Q3 achieved revenue of 3.68 billion yuan, a decrease of 27.0% over the previous year; net profit of the mother was 400 million yuan, a decrease of 19.9% over the previous year. Among them, revenue for the third quarter alone was 1.39 billion yuan, down 12.1% year on year; net profit was 160 million yuan, down 10.8% year on year. The gross profit margin of 2020Q1-Q3 was 21.4%, the same year on year. Among them, the gross profit margin for the single third quarter was 18.8%, a decrease of 4.5 PCT over the previous year. This was mainly due to the increase in the price of upstream raw materials and the company's product prices were always high, so there was no price increase; the period cost ratio was 7.2%, up 0.3 PCT from the previous year; and the net profit margin was 10.8%, up 0.9 PCT from the previous year. I am optimistic about the recovery of the printing and dyeing business in the fourth quarter. According to the textile fabric platform, as all parts of the country entered the fall season one after another in October, and terminal traffic resumed (the total number of visitors to shopping centers nationwide reached 305 million during the 11th Golden Week), retail sales of autumn and winter clothing began to recover, and some upstream cloth factories and dyeing factories experienced price increases. We expect the recovery of clothing retail sales to drive the recovery of aviation residents' printing and dyeing business in Q4. The gold business is affected by the pandemic and may not be able to meet its 2018 performance promises. The company's gold jewelry sales volume in the first three quarters was 26.54 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 41.4%; the sales volume of gold ornaments was 0.11 tons, an increase of 32.5% over the previous year. The sales volume of gold jewelry in the third quarter alone was 9.43 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 25.1%; the sales volume of gold ornaments was 0.04 tons, an increase of 56.53% year-on-year. The epidemic in the first three quarters delayed Hangmin Baitai's resumption of work and production after the Spring Festival. It also curtailed sales in the gold and jewellery industry during Q1, a traditional peak season, leading to a decline in the company's gold business sales volume. Although the domestic epidemic has abated in Q3 and downstream gold stores have been operating one after another, it is difficult for the company's annual gold business performance to meet the cumulative performance promise agreed in the 2018 restructuring transaction. The results for 2020-2022 were 0.63 yuan/share, 0.75 yuan/share, and 0.80 yuan/share, respectively. The company's current stock price corresponds to 7.3 times PE in '21. Referring to the average PE (TTM) of 11.3 times in the past three years, the 2021 PE valuation is 11 times (the aviation gold business is the same processing business, and the contribution profit is low, so the consolidated valuation). The corresponding reasonable value is 8.3 yuan/share, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning. There are risks such as sluggish demand; performance promises agreed upon in the 18-year restructuring will not be fulfilled.

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