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松芝股份(002454):经营周期底部 业务结构优化

中信證券 ·  Oct 19, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company is a leader in vehicle air conditioning systems in China. The penetration rate of air conditioning for commercial vehicles and construction machinery in Sany and XCMG continues to increase, breaking through Futian and Shaanxi Auto; passenger car business customer structure optimization, receiving orders from Changan Ford, and further breaking through the supply chain of Volkswagen and Honda through the acquisition of Jingbin Ocean; the company is a leading air conditioner for large and medium-sized buses, with a market share of more than 30% in 2019, and is expected to benefit from the recovery in passenger car prosperity and the increase in sales volume brought about by the upgrade of new energy thermal management systems. The company is currently at the bottom of the business cycle, and the business structure continues to be optimized. We predict that the company's EPS for 2020/21/22 will be 0.31/0.42/0.53 yuan, giving the company a valuation of 25 times PE in 2021. The target price is 10.50 yuan, covering the “buy” rating for the first time. The company is a leading manufacturer of mobile air conditioners in China. The company achieved revenue of 3.41 billion yuan in 2019, -7.6% year-on-year; net profit of 180 million yuan, +0.3% year-on-year. By business, car thermal management business accounted for 45% of revenue, large and medium bus thermal management business accounted for 44% of revenue; refrigerated car air conditioners, rail car air conditioners, and automobile air conditioning components each accounted for 2% of revenue. The thermal management business for small cars and large and medium buses is the company's core business. In the first half of 2020, the company achieved revenue of 1.47 billion yuan, -17.5% year-on-year, and net profit of 0.7 billion yuan, or -42.6% year-on-year; mainly due to the impact of the epidemic. The actual controller of the company is Chen Fucheng, a natural person. As of the first half of 2020, the shareholding ratio was 43.8%, and the shareholding structure was stable. The company has carried out many mergers and acquisitions to continuously develop products and customers. In June 2020, the company acquired 55% of Keihin Taiyo's shares for 1.1 billion yen, further developing the business of Honda and Volkswagen. The air conditioning market space is vast, and independent brands have a lot of room for growth. The value of bicycles with air conditioning systems for commercial vehicles is around 2,000 yuan, and passenger cars are over 1,000 yuan. According to our estimates, the domestic air conditioning system market in 2020 was 28.2 billion yuan, is expected to reach 37 billion yuan in 2025, and the five-year CAGR is 5.6%. Among them, in terms of condensers, according to estimates of the value of commercial vehicles for bicycles of 300 yuan and the value of passenger cars and bicycles of 150 yuan, the domestic condenser market in 2020 was 4.2 billion yuan, and is expected to reach 5.5 billion yuan in 2025, with a CAGR of 5.6%. In the automotive air conditioning system market, Denso, Mahle, Valeo, and Hanon have the highest market shares. With its product technology and quick service response, Matsushima has a leading edge in the domestic large, medium, and construction machinery markets. The customer structure has been optimized, and the operation has bottomed out and improved. Since 2019, the company has adhered to the business strategy of bringing passengers and business together, focusing on the development of the air conditioning business for commercial vehicles, especially construction machinery. The share of commercial vehicle air conditioning business has gradually increased. The company's current commercial vehicle customers include advanced construction machinery manufacturers such as Sany, Xugong, Foton, and Shaanxi Automobile. With its high-quality product quality and quick service response, the company won the Best Cooperation Award of the Sany Group Strategic Alliance and the Excellent Supplier of Sany Pumping. In terms of passenger cars, the company mainly supplies customers with condensers, air conditioning boxes, and other products such as water-cooled panels. The customer structure is constantly being optimized. The company continues to eliminate lower-end passenger car customers and gradually expand into high-quality independent and joint venture brand customers. Currently, the company's main customers in the passenger car business include Jianghuai, Changan, SAIC-GM-Wuling, SAIC Motor passenger cars, etc.; it is a supplier of condenser assemblies, air conditioner box assemblies, and heater assemblies for the recently popular Wuling Hongguang MINIEV. Continuous investment in research and development, and rapid expansion of new business. Since 2014, the company has spent more than 150 million yuan on R&D every year; in terms of patents, the company is the drafting unit of industry standards for automotive air conditioning products, and vehicle air conditioning R&D technology is ahead of domestic peers; as of the end of June 2020, the company has 540 national patents. Moreover, the company has two nationally accredited certification laboratories, the Shanghai Songzhi Experimental Center and the Jianghuai Songzhi Experimental Center. The company invested 150 million yuan in 2018 to build an internationally advanced ring-model wind tunnel test laboratory to accelerate cooperative development with many automakers. The company is a leading enterprise in the field of air conditioning for large and medium-sized buses. The air conditioning products are constantly iterating, the product technology is leading, and the market share is stable. The new battery thermal management business also collaborates with air conditioning, and continues to provide incremental services. In terms of cold chain business, after acquiring Lumikko, the company localized its technology and products, and solidly promoted the refrigeration unit business, including the transportation of pharmaceuticals, fruits and vegetables, etc., fully benefiting from the rapid growth in cold chain transportation demand after the pandemic. Risk factors: The prosperity of the automotive industry is declining; product development progress falls short of expectations; and the expansion of new products and new customers falls short of expectations.

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