富途研选 | 今年涨超270%,小牛电动是电瓶车界的“特斯拉”?

Futu Research | With an increase of more than 270% this year, is Maverick Electric the “Tesla” of the battery car industry?

富途研選 ·  Oct 22, 2020 16:34  · Researches


This article has been compiled from CICC's “Maverick Electric: Winning by the latecomer and becoming a leader in high-end lithium-ion two-wheelers”

Summary:Maverick Electric's stock price performance this year is very impressive, with a cumulative increase of about 277% since the beginning of the yearThe company is also known by the outside world as Tesla, a two-wheeled electric car. Based on its outlook on the domestic and foreign electric motorcycle industry and its understanding of Maverick's core competitiveness, CICC believes that it is still in a period of rapid growth, and annual sales volume is expected to start in 2019Year 42The number of vehicles increased to 2022 by 10,000Year 215Ten thousand vehicles, CAGRUp to 72%, the future 2-3The year is expected to usher in the release of concentrated profits.

1. At the industry level, the new national standard drives electric two-wheelers to restart high growth

Two-wheelers are an important part of travel tools. According to the annual production scale, the domestic production and sales scale of two-wheelers in 2019 was close to 60 million units, including about 30-35 million two-wheeler electric vehicles. The electrification penetration rate has reached a high level of 80%.


Judging from the growth rate, the period of rapid growth of electric bicycles in China was 2000-2012, after which they entered the stock era:


But the industry is in 2018A major variable appeared this year - the new national standard (implementation standard for the new national standard for electric vehicles, 2018.5.17(Published)This policy is expected to accelerate stock elimination over the next 2-3 years, driving electric two-wheelers to restart high growth.

Preliminary estimate of CICCThe elimination of non-standard vehicles will drive demand for early replacement of about 60 million vehicles, thereby driving the industry's sales volume to 55 million vehicles in 2022, which is close to doubling from the current level.

For enterprises, restarting the industry with high growth is undoubtedly a rare development opportunity. The above is also the general background for CICC's optimism about Maverick's future development.


2. The latecomer wins, Maverick leads the middle and high-end lithium battery market

Maverick Electric is the champion of Gundam to enter the electric motorcycle market. It has now stabilized in the domestic high-end lithium battery market.

In 2014, Maverick Electric was founded, and the first electric vehicle, the NQi, was released in 2015. At the end of 2019, it had 1,050 domestic stores, and sold more than 1 million electric vehicles worldwide.

The company's electric two-wheeler sales volume increased from 85,000 units in 2016 to 421,000 units in 2019, with a compound growth rate of 70.5%:


On the financial side, Maverick's revenue has increased rapidly in recent years along with sales volume, and compared horizontally with peers, it has advantages such as high profit margins, light assets, and high-quality cash flow.

Maverick's revenue grew rapidly along with sales volume. 2020H1 was disrupted by the epidemic, and the growth rate declined:


In 2019, Maverick's operating profit margin was relatively stable, and its profitability was far higher than the industry average:


In a horizontal comparison, Maverick also has a lighter asset model, limited capital expenditure, and low bicycle depreciation and amortization:


Why was Maverick able to quickly establish itself in the middle and high-end lithium battery market as a new entrant?CICC analysis benefits from Maverick's core competitiveness, including:

1) Product introduction from top to bottom, high profile, and accurate marketing;

2) Original design and core technology enable intelligence+networking;

2) App applications deepen social circle attributes;

3) The channel layout is gradual and the control is strong;

4) The international founder team complements the brand's tone.

Maverick currently has four major N/M/U/G electric two-wheeler product lines, covering a product matrix of 2,500 yuan to 10,000 yuan:


The above capabilities make Maverick's product prices much higher than those of other leading domestic manufacturers, while high product prices also help it open up profit margins and gradually shape high-end brands:


3. Prospects: Mavericks are about to enter a period of explosive performance

Based on its outlook on the domestic and foreign electric motorcycle industry and its understanding of Maverick's core competitiveness, CICC believes that the company is still in a stage of rapid growthIt is also expected that its annual sales volume will increase from 420,000 units in 2019 to 2.15 million units in 2022, with a CAGR of up to 72%.

First, the domestic marketCICC expects that starting in the second half of 2021, the domestic market will gradually enter the replacement period for non-standard vehicles, and drive the industry's sales volume to 55 million units in 2022. During this period, Maverick's domestic sales volume is expected to increase from 390,000 to 1.94 million vehicles.



In terms of overseas marketsCICC expects Maverick sales to increase from 30,000 units in 2019 to 210,000 units in 2022, and total global sales volume will increase from 420,000 units in 2019 to 2.15 million units.


In terms of performance, CICC expects Maverick's operating income in 2020-2022 to be 2.89 billion yuan, 4.99 billion yuan and 8.88 billion yuan respectively. GAAP net profit is 220 million yuan, 500 million yuan and 930 million yuan, and CAGR of 106%


In terms of valuation, CICC referred to 2Dimensions:

1) In the traditional electric two-wheeler industry, the Hong Kong-listed company Yadi and the A-share listed company's new day corresponding to 2021 P/E are 27.2/20.7 times, respectively. In contrast, Maverick has more room for growth, a better competitive pattern, and stronger premium ability, and its valuation should enjoy a premium;

2) Small household appliances and consumer electronics companies: Comparable in terms of consumption attributes, unit prices, and service life, etc. Relevant listed companies, including Little Bear Electric, Supor, Joyoung Co., Ltd., and Covos, have an average P/E of 39.5 times in 2021.

Based on the above considerations, CICC believes that the reasonable valuation of Mavericks corresponds to 30Double P/E, for the first time, coverage gave a rating of outperforming the industry.


The translation is provided by third-party software.

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