This article is edited by Oriental Securities, "strong demand for power semiconductors, rising prices and domestic substitution-driven performance growth".
Abstract: in recent years, the voice of the Internet of everything is getting louder and louder. Vehicles represented by cars and high-speed rail, new energy fields represented by photovoltaic and wind power, communication equipment represented by mobile phones, consumer products represented by televisions, washing machines, air conditioners and refrigerators are constantly improving their electronic level, among which the highly electronic of new energy vehicles is the most eye-catching. At the same time, traditional industries such as industry and power grid are also accelerating the process of electronization.The electronic development of almost the whole industry has greatly increased the demand for power semiconductor devices.
Overview of Power Semiconductor Devices
Power semiconductor devices (PowerSemiconductorDevice) refer to power semiconductor devices that convert and control electricity. Power conversion includes the conversion of one or more voltages, currents, or frequencies; power control refers to the control of input and output power.
Generally speaking, power semiconductor devices are mainly divided into three categories: power modules, power integrated circuits (PowerIC, abbreviated as PIC, also known as power IC) and discrete devices. Among them, power modules are modular packaging of multiple discrete power semiconductor devices; power IC corresponds to the integration of discrete power semiconductor devices with peripheral circuits such as drive / control / protection / interface / monitoring. The discrete power semiconductor device is the key of power module and power IC.
Power semiconductor devices have gradually developed from simple diodes to high performance and integration. Since the 1980s, power semiconductor devices MOSFET, IGBT and power integrated circuits have gradually become the mainstream application types. Among them, IGBT has experienced seven times of technological evolution, such as device longitudinal structure, gate structure and wafer processing technology. at present, the voltage withstand capacity has jumped from 3000V in the fourth generation to 6500V in the seventh generation, and has realized high frequency (10-100kHz) applications.
The demand for power semiconductors is strong, and the increment in many fields is significant.
From the perspective of power terminals, the main future increments of power semiconductors come from:
① New Energy Electric vehicle brings huge incremental Market
The development of ② Internet of things and cloud computing has put forward higher requirements for computing and storage, and the expansion of cloud and fog data centers has brought greater power demand.
③ industrial automation uses machines instead of manpower, and the demand for power supply and power conversion also increases significantly.
The upgrading of ④ electrical equipment, such as frequency conversion of household appliances, frequency conversion of industrial motors and the rise of fast charging, have also contributed significant increments to the market as a whole.
Among them, the increment brought by new energy electric vehicles is the most obvious:
The new energy vehicle is divided according to the power from low to high, and the new amount of power devices is gradually increasing. From the micro-hybrid only used for the start-stop function, to the energy recovery and on-board charging of all-electric vehicles, the demand for power devices is increasing. The demand for new power devices for light hybrid MHEV is less than $50, while that for pure electric vehicle BEV has exceeded $300.Vehicle electrification + electric vehicle market penetration increases to drive vehicle gauge power semiconductor market demand is growing at a high speed.
According to the proportion of electronic control of different manufacturers and products, the electric control cost of plug-in and pure trams accounts for about 5%, 9%, of which IGBT/MOSFET accounts for nearly 40% of the cost composition of electronic control system, so new energy vehicles provide huge incremental market demand for power semiconductors.
Production capacity is tight and prices of power semiconductors are expected to rise.
At present, power semiconductors are mainly manufactured by 8-inch wafer production lines, and the strong demand for power semiconductors and other products drives the tight production capacity of 8-inch wafers. United Microelectronics Corp, the world's advanced and other manufacturers operating rate remains close to or even more than 100% of the high level, 8-inch wafers also ushered in the trend of price increase. According to media reports, recently, fabs have been informed that prices will be raised in the fourth quarter of 2020 and the first quarter of 2021, and the delivery time of some customers has been extended from about 2.5-3 months to 3-4 months, or even more than half a year.
With regard to the price of power semiconductors, according to the report of Dianfa enthusiast Network, two domestic manufacturers have issued price increase notices, and the price increase of MOS transistors will reach 20% from October. The price increase of MOSFET is expected to gradually spread to the entire power semiconductor industry.
The leader is 60 times in 10 years.
At present, the global power semiconductor devices are mainly provided by Europe, the United States and Japan. With advanced technology and manufacturing technology, as well as the leading quality management system, they occupy about 70% of the global market share. Infineon, Italian and French Semiconductor and Semiconductor are not only representative companies in Europe, but also among the best in the world; in the United States, on Semiconductor, IR and Ling Li Technology are famous; Japan is also the main player of power semiconductor devices, Renesa, Toshiba, Fuji Motor and Rom are famous all over the world.
Global market share of MOSFET vendors in 2017 (source: IHS)
Market share of Chinese mainland MOSFET vendors in 2017 (source: IHS)
On the demand side, about 39% of the world's power semiconductor device production capacity is consumed by Chinese mainland, which is the world's largest demand country, but its self-sufficiency rate is only 10%, which is heavily dependent on imports.
It is worth mentioning that Infineon, the leading manufacturer of global power semiconductors, has risen more than 60 times since the S & P 500 hit bottom in June 2009, and has recently been making new highs. Infineon, originally a Siemens semiconductor division with a loss of 1.2 billion marks in 1998, was independently reorganized into Infineon Technology in 1999 and listed on the Frankfurt Exchange and New York Stock Exchange in 2000.
