Revenue for the first three quarters increased by 14.68%, net profit increased by 35.89%. The company announced the 2020 three-quarter report: revenue of 1.09 billion yuan in the first three quarters, up 14.68% year on year; net profit to mother of 294 million yuan, up 35.89% year on year; net profit after deduction of 264 million yuan, up 26.39% year on year. Overall performance was slightly lower than market expectations. Net operating cash flow was 287 million yuan, up 61.75% year on year. The operating quality was good. Among them, Q3 revenue was 293 million yuan, down 21.90% year on year; net profit to mother was 74 million yuan, down 27.03% year on year; net profit after deduction from mother was 56 million yuan, down 45.28% year on year. The decline in the company's Q3 performance is expected to be mainly due to company maintenance (no maintenance in the same period last year). At the same time, the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is expected to result in a drop in hospital traffic and a drop in bacterial infections due to good residents' measures affecting terminal demand and channel inventory removal. With the completion of maintenance and the continuous recovery of terminal diagnosis and treatment, the company's performance is expected to return to good growth in the fourth quarter. The gross margin for the first three quarters was 43.84%, +1.37 pp. The cost rate for the period (including R&D) was 13.35%, year-on-year -1.26pp, of which: sales expense ratio was 1.42%, year-on-year -0.34 pp, management expense ratio (including R&D) was 10.74%, -0.99 pp year-on-year, and financial expense ratio was -1.19%, +0.07 pp year over year. The net interest rate was 26.81%, +4.10 pp year on year, down 0.40 pp from the semi-annual report. It is expected to be mainly affected by price increases for upstream raw materials such as 6APA and increased cost sharing under maintenance. Continuing to promote fixed growth downstream, product expansion, and new developments in the formulation business The company is advancing the 1.04 billion yuan fixed increase project to expand downstream and product categories: The company continues to promote fixed increase projects for 1. Fuxiang Biomedical Project (high-efficiency Peinan antibiotic construction project), 2. The annual output of 616 tons of navir intermediates and 900 tons of batan intermediates projects. Through the implementation of the project, the company will accelerate the optimization and upgrading of the industrial chain, and improve the strategy of vertical integration from pharmaceutical intermediates and APIs to formulation production. Meanwhile, through the implementation of the navir intermediate project, the company will expand the category of viral intermediates based on the existing layout of the antibiotic industry chain such as the Batan and Peinan industries, which is conducive to the company's long-term development and the company's goal of becoming a leading comprehensive anti-infective provider. The company's agatroban was approved, marking the company's business experiment in the field of pharmaceuticals and new progress. The production capacity of sterile products is expected to be achieved, and high product standards are expected to benefit from the consistency evaluation of injections. In addition to the fund-raising project, the company's related enzyme inhibitor aseptic powder and powder mixing projects are expected to reach production conditions within 2020, marking the upgrade of the product system and a milestone in the company's development. Compared with the company's existing products, sterile APIs have a higher added value and are expected to further enhance the company's profitability. The company focuses on developing a standardized market and actively expanding major standardized market customers such as Pfizer and Merck. The launch of the company's sterile products is expected to open the door to the supply chain system of US pharmaceutical giants and lay a solid foundation for medium- to long-term development. The company extends the pharmaceutical field and continuously expands the profit margin of the industrial chain. In the context of overseas outsourcing and domestic collection, the company has obvious advantages in integrating upstream and downstream (intermediates - APIs - formulations). Domestic injectable consistency evaluations have been initiated. The company's drug quality standards are high. The raw materials of tazobactam, sulbactam products, and piperacillin raw materials have passed the FDA certification on-site inspection with the conclusion of “zero defects”; the company's sulbactane acid and sulbactam sodium have passed the Japanese PMDA's GMP compliance survey (that is, Japanese PMDA certification), and formulation products using the company's tazobactam APIs have been approved for sale in markets such as Europe, the United States, Canada, Australia, South Korea, etc. In the context of consistency evaluation and drug-related review and approval policies, customers tend to choose high-standard APIs to declare at the beginning, and the competitiveness of the company's related products is expected to continue to be prominent. We are optimistic about the future development of the company. Maintaining the “buy” rating, we will not adjust the company's profit forecast for the time being. The company's EPS for 2020-2022 is 0.86, 1.11, and 1.42 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 21, 16, and 12 times, respectively. The company started a fixed increase to expand the downstream of Peinan and expand the product category, actively expand the formulation field, contribute to the future and increase valuation. The company is deeply involved in the field of high-end antibiotics and continues to expand cooperation opportunities with global pharmaceutical giants. We are optimistic about the company's development and maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: The progress of fixed growth fell short of expectations, and the price of upstream raw materials rose more than expected; market competition was fierce, and the company's product sales and price performance were lower than expected; risk of environmental accidents; risk of RMB appreciation exchange rate; the COVID-19 pandemic's driving effect on product sales was lower than expected
富祥药业(300497)季报点评:Q3去库存影响业绩 持续推进定增拓展产业一体化
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