Events:
The company released its three-quarter report for 2020, with operating income of 353 million yuan in the first three quarters, an increase of 75.30% over the same period last year; net profit of 81.5871 million yuan, up 1441.00% over the same period last year; net profit of 74.7389 million yuan, compared with a loss of 468700 yuan in the same period last year; and basic earnings per share of 0.52 yuan.
The company expects a net profit of 12000-145 million yuan in 2020, an increase of 898.68% and 1106.73% over the same period last year.
Main points of investment:
The results of the three quarterly reports exceeded expectations and exceeded the upper limit of the performance forecast. The company's net profit in the first three quarters reached 81.5871 million yuan, an increase of 1441.00% over the same period last year, breaking the upper limit of 6500-78 million yuan in net profit forecast. Among them, Q3 single-quarter operating income and home net profit grew by 107.43% and 1322.07% respectively over the same period last year, maintaining a trend of rapid growth.
The market demand of intelligent unmanned system is exuberant, the performance enters the release period, and is expected to continue to release volume. The company takes the intelligent unmanned system as the main strategic direction to focus on investment, in-hand orders are full, the performance has entered the release period. According to the company's announcement, the total amount of new orders signed by the company this year reached 362 million yuan, with a cumulative order of about 442 million yuan, of which military drone orders reached 305 million yuan. By the end of the third quarter, about 73.07 million yuan of contracts for military drone projects have been delivered for acceptance and confirmed revenue of 64.66 million yuan, while about 220 million yuan of contracts are being implemented and delivery is expected to be completed by the end of this year. The company's intelligent unmanned system-related products are highly competitive, benefiting from the increasing demand for unmanned target aircraft driven by the increase in the intensity and frequency of actual combat military training, as well as the 10 billion-class market for military unmanned vehicles brought about by the trend of unmanned equipment, the business is expected to continue to expand.
The satellite communication service goes hand in hand with the military and the people, and the information-aware service blossoms at many points. In terms of satellite communications business, the company's mobile ZTO Express products are expected to continue to benefit from the transformation of military satellites and the vigorous development of satellite Internet, the number of orders for land dual-frequency mobile communication antennas continues to grow, shipborne dual-band antennas have been finalized and began to be supplied in batches, and the civilian field has been ordered and expanded to low-orbit satellite communication systems. In terms of information perception business, the company has realized the layout of the whole industry chain in the field of inertial navigation, has a significant leading advantage in the field of autopilot, and is actively expanding into the military field; in photoelectric detection to complete the development of serialized products and achieve breakthroughs in UAV, customs, border and coastal defense, monitoring and other application fields.
Profit forecast and investment rating: maintain buy rating. Based on the fact that intelligent unmanned systems are expected to continue to expand, we raise our profit forecast for the company from 2021 to 2022. It is estimated that the net profit from 2020 to 2022 is 146 million yuan, 230 million yuan and 275 million yuan respectively, the corresponding EPS is 0.93,1.47 yuan and 1.75 yuan respectively, and the pre-corresponding share price PE is 49 times, 31 times and 26 times respectively, maintaining the buy rating.
Risk tips: 1) the development of unmanned system is not as expected; 2) the construction of satellite Internet is not as expected; 3) the progress of military bidding procurement is not as expected; 4) systemic risk.