Dongjiang Environmental Protection (002672): the performance of 1Q has dropped by 31% and is expected to lead to performance repair after resuming work and production.

中金公司 · Oct 23, 2020 00:00 · Researches

　　1~3Q20 净利润减少31%，略低于预期

　　公司公布1~3Q20 业绩，前三季度营收23.02 亿元，同比下降10.67%；归母净利润2.29 亿元，同比下降30.91%，对应每股盈利0.26 元。仅看3Q20，公司归母净利润0.69 亿元，同比下降13.50%。

　　1~3Q20 扣非后归母净利润1.88 亿元，同比下降37.2%，略低于我们和市场一致预期。

　　疫情影响公司营收减少。我们认为报告期内公司营收下滑主要由于疫情导致上游公司复工推迟，但是随着行业复工复产，营收迅速恢复，2Q20/3Q20 营收相比1Q20 均提升25%。

　　公司盈利能力下滑。我们认为公司业绩下滑幅度主要由于报告期内受新冠疫情和市场竞争加剧的影响，资源化业务收运价格上涨以及工业处置业务处置价格下降导致公司利润减少，1~3Q20 公司毛利率下降4.6ppt 至32%。

　　期间费用率提升。公司折旧、人工等较为刚性导致1~3Q20 期间费用率提升1.9ppt 至22%。由于业绩下滑导致公司经营性现金流减少28.9%至6.26 亿元。

　　发展趋势

　　拟发行15 亿元超短融，拓宽融资渠道，保障公司产能增长。公司公告拟向中国银行间交易市场申请注册不超过15 亿元超短融，期限不超过270 天。如果发行成功，我们认为有助于增强公司资金能力，保障在建产能顺利推进。截至1H20，公司在建/拟建项目合计产能51.75 万吨，约为公司在运产能的25%，储备充足，保障公司未来业绩表现。

　　盈利预测与估值

　　考虑到公司受疫情影响和终端产品价格下滑影响，我们下调2020/2021 年净利润31%/6%至3.43/5.60 亿元，A 股当前股价对应24.7/15.1 倍2020/2021 年市盈率。但长期依旧看好公司产能恢复，维持跑赢行业评级和目标价12.8 元不变，对应2020/2021 年32.8/20 倍市盈率，较当前股价有33%的上行空间。港股当前股价对应14.2/8.7 倍2020/2021 年市盈率，维持跑赢行业评级目标价8港元不变，对应2020/2021 年20.5/12.3 倍市盈率，有28%的上行空间。

　　风险

　　应收账款减值风险，危废处置价格下降风险，项目推进风险。

1~3Q20 's net profit fell 31%, slightly lower than expected

The company announced 1~3Q20 results that revenue in the first three quarters was 2.302 billion yuan, down 10.67% from the same period last year, and net profit was 229 million yuan, down 30.91% from the same period last year, corresponding to 0.26 yuan per share. If you look at 3Q20 alone, the company's parent net profit is 69 million yuan, down 13.50% from the same period last year.

The net profit of 1~3Q20 deducting non-return is 188 million yuan, down 37.2% from the same period last year, slightly lower than what we and the market expected.

The epidemic affected the company's revenue. We believe that the decline in revenue during the reporting period was mainly due to the delay in the resumption of work by upstream companies due to the epidemic, but with the resumption of production in the industry, revenue recovered rapidly, and 2Q20/3Q20 revenue increased by 25% compared with 1Q20.

The company's profitability is declining. We believe that the decline in the company's performance is mainly due to the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and increased market competition during the reporting period, the increase in the collection and transportation price of the resource business and the decline in the disposal price of the industrial disposal business led to a decrease in the company's profit, and the gross profit margin of 1~3Q20 decreased by 4.6ppt to 32%.

The rate of expenses increased during the period. Company depreciation, labor and other relatively rigid caused the expense rate during the 1~3Q20 to increase to 22% 1.9ppt. Due to the decline in performance, the company's operating cash flow decreased by 28.9% to 626 million yuan.

Trend of development

It plans to issue 1.5 billion yuan of ultra-short financing to broaden financing channels and ensure the growth of the company's production capacity. The company announces that it intends to apply to the Bank of China Ltd. exchange market for registration of no more than 1.5 billion yuan for ultra-short financing, and the time limit shall not exceed 270days. If the issue is successful, we think it will help to enhance the company's financial capacity and ensure the smooth progress of production capacity under construction. As of 1H20, the company has a total production capacity of 517500 tons under construction / proposed projects, which is about 25% of the company's transport capacity, with sufficient reserves to ensure the company's future performance.

Profit forecast and valuation

Taking into account the impact of the epidemic and the decline in the price of end products, we have reduced the net profit of 2020Universe by 31% of net profit in 2021 by 6% to RMB 343 million, and the current share price of A shares corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 24.7 ppm 15.1 times 2020 pesque 2021. However, in the long run, the company is still optimistic about the recovery of production capacity, keeping the industry rating outperforming and the target price unchanged at 12.8 yuan, corresponding to the price-to-earnings ratio of 2020 Compact in 2021, which has 33% upside space compared to the current stock price. The current price of Hong Kong stocks corresponds to the price-to-earnings ratio of 14.2x2020xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

Risk.

The risk of impairment of accounts receivable, the risk of decline in the price of hazardous waste disposal, and the risk of project promotion.

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东江环保(002672)：1～3Q业绩下滑31% 期待复工复产后带动业绩修复

Dongjiang Environmental Protection (002672): the performance of 1Q has dropped by 31% and is expected to lead to performance repair after resuming work and production.

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