Event: the company issued a forecast of results for the first three quarters of 20 years, with estimated net profit of 1.6-180 million yuan, yoy+118.27-145.55%, and basic earnings per share of 0.79-0.89 yuan per share.
Comments: the company is the leader of LCD module, and its performance in the first three quarters of 20 years is much higher than expected. The introduction of state-owned superior strategic resources + industry prosperity + deep-seated, high-viscosity high-quality customer system, the company's LCM and CCM wings fly together, continue to recommend in the future!
The results in the first three quarters of 20 years are in line with our expectations, well ahead of market expectations, and continue to benefit from high growth in the industry.
The company forecasts that the net profit of homing in the first three quarters of 20 years will be 160-180 million yuan, yoy+118.27-145.55%, and the corresponding net profit of 20Q3 will be 0.77-97 million yuan, yoy+71.11-115.56%, mainly due to 1) the company has established a deep-seated, high-viscosity high-quality major customer cooperation system to fully ensure the two-way sustained growth of revenue and profitability. 2) the company continues to optimize the product structure and improve the efficiency of factory management. In the future, the company's 24 production lines in Ganzhou Phase II are expected to achieve 2.2 billion yuan in main business income after full production. At the same time, the company has mass-produced camera modules and cut into the field of 3D sensing. Bound to Huawei, OV, Samsung and other leaders, the company is expected to continue to benefit from the increase in customer orders brought about by 5G replacement, which will continue to grow at a high level next year.
LCM: the company has sufficient production capacity + perfect product structure, superior industry volume + customer production. The company built a high-end LCD module production line in Ganzhou in 19 years, increased the proportion of high-end products, and invested in the construction of a two-in-one display module project with an annual output of 6000 million pieces of special-shaped two-in-one screen. in the future, it will benefit from 1) 20 years of natural replacement + 5G replacement drive. It is estimated that the market size of LCD modules in China will grow from 231.62 billion yuan to 368.92 billion yuan in 20-25 years. 2) shortage of panel-driven IC + price increase of display panel + epidemic has paralyzed logistics for a long time, showing that the price of module products has been raised since July, with an increase of 10-20%. 3) customer market share has increased + panel customers have been put into production: in 19 years, the global market share of HMOV, the company's terminal customer, has reached 40%. At the same time, the company's panel customers are mainly BOE, Qunchuang Optoelectronics and so on, of which BOE's global market share reached 18.9% in 19 years, and a number of production lines were put into production in 20 years.
CCM: continue to import display module customers, the company benefits from market expansion, sufficient orders. The company has begun mass production of biometric modules and other products, and invested in the establishment of Nanchang camera module factory, with an annual production capacity of 48 million. Through the introduction of LCD module customers, the company's camera module production line is full, 18 production lines have been opened, and another 7 production lines are planned. At that time, the monthly production capacity will increase from 16kk to 22kk, which will benefit from: 1) multiple photography will generate demand in the future: as of April 20, among the models released by manufacturers in the past 20 years, three cameras accounted for 27.1% and four cameras accounted for 61%. It is estimated that global mobile phone camera shipments will reach 7.5 billion in 21 years. 2) High definition led to an increase in unit price: in 15-19, the Ofi camera module ASP increased from 12.78 yuan to 46.37 yuan, Qiu titanium increased from 22.38 yuan to 25.52 yuan, and Shunyu increased from 37.11 yuan to 70.09 yuan. It is estimated that the proportion of 12MP mobile phone lenses in China will reach 83% in 20 years. 3) 3D sensing is a new development trend, and the market size is expected to be close to US $6 billion in 20 years.
Investment suggestion: the company's 20-22 net profit is expected to be 3.00,4.50 and 541 million yuan, with a 21-year PE=34x, corresponding to the target price of 75.41 yuan per share, with a market capitalization of 15.3 billion, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk tips: increased competition in the industry; product research and development is not as expected; downstream demand is not as expected
