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海顺新材(300501):业绩增速居高 盈利持续性得到验证

安信證券 ·  Oct 13, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company released the third quarter results forecast: The company expects to achieve net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in the first three quarters of 2020 of 7796.79-83.1658 million yuan, an increase of 50% to 60% year on year; of these, net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in Q3 is 3229.36-342508 million yuan, an increase of 65% to 75% year on year. Performance flexibility was once again verified: After deducting the impact of the company's non-recurring profit and loss, the company's Q3 net profit is expected to be 2538-27.33 million yuan, an increase of 29%-39% year-on-year. The company's net profit after deducting non-backward returns in the first three quarters was about 6877-73.97 million yuan, an increase of 50%-61.3% year on year. The company's performance continued to grow, mainly due to the good development of the company's main business, continuous development of new customers, and based on reviews and consistent evaluations related to the pharmaceutical packaging industry. At the same time, the integration of subsidiaries is gradually on the right track, improving production efficiency and contributing benefits. The company issued a fixed increase plan to further expand high-barrier production capacity: the company announced that it will issue A-shares common stock to no more than 35 (inclusive) specific targets, and the total capital raised will not exceed 601.6 million yuan (inclusive). After deducting related expenses, it will all be used for a high-barrier composite production line project with an annual output of 18,000 tons. In this fixed increase project, a cold-stamped high-barrier hard film production line, recyclable high-barrier materials, multi-layer co-extruded high-performance bottles/syringes, etc. will be built. The company's further expansion of cold aluminum products will strengthen the company's service and production capacity, and further consolidate its market position to seize more market share. At the same time, the layout of the high-end differentiated multi-layer co-extruded high-performance bottle/syringe product line is expected to enhance the company's core competitiveness and break the barriers of domestic non-glass oral liquid and injection packaging. Cash dividends to give back to investors: The company will implement different dividend ratio requirements according to its development stage and whether it has significant capital and accommodation arrangements. According to the company's announcement, the lower dividend ratio limits will be set at 20%, 40%, and 80% respectively during the company's growth period and maturity period, and when considering whether there is significant capital expenditure. In 2019, the company's dividend ratio was only 11.69%. This time, the company clearly proposed a continuous and stable cash dividend plan to give back to shareholders, guide investors to make long-term and rational investments, help the company smooth out large fluctuations in stock prices and reflect the actual value of the enterprise. Investment advice: According to the company's new construction project announcement, considering the rising production capacity of Suzhou Haishun & Duoling Pharmaceutical Package and the gradual contribution of the Nanxun project to profits after 21 years, performance growth is expected to accelerate. We expect the company's net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies in 20-22 to be 118 million yuan, 188 million yuan, and 263 million yuan respectively, increasing by 76.0%, 59.6%, and 39.7% respectively, maintaining the “buy-A” rating. Corresponding to the 2020-2022 PE is 37.3X/23.4X/16.7X yuan, respectively. Risk warning: The increase in concentration fell short of expectations, the profit status of the acquired company fell short of expectations, and the release of new Aclar Edge products fell short of expectations.

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