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新光光电(688011):Q3业绩超预期 尽享导弹黄金赛道

中信證券 ·  Oct 21, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company's Q3 results exceeded market expectations. Current orders are in short supply. Q4 results are expected to be released at an accelerated pace, and rapid growth will continue in the next few years. Maintain the target price of 93.24 yuan and maintain the “buy” rating. Q3 Performance exceeded expectations. The company's revenue for the first three quarters of 2020 was 56.94 million yuan, or -39.61% year on year; of these, Q3 revenue was 2.32 million yuan, -29.89% year over year, and net profit to mother was 14.54 million yuan, +54.83% year over year, and the performance exceeded market expectations (market forecast Q3 net profit for the single quarter was 10 million yuan). The decline in performance in the first three quarters was mainly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. Downstream customer procurement was delayed, while delivery and acceptance of the company's products were delayed. The inflection point of Q3 performance has arrived, and Q4 is expected to be released at an accelerated pace. As a leader in domestic missile optical imaging guidance, the company maintains close cooperation with the two major domestic missile production groups (Aerospace Science and Engineering, Aerospace Science and Technology). Although performance declined due to the impact of the epidemic, the performance has reached an inflection point since Q3 single-quarter analysis. Currently, demand from downstream customers is strong, the company's on-hand orders are in short supply, and Q4 performance is expected to be released at an accelerated pace. Demand was suppressed due to military reforms in the past two years, and the industrial chain was in short supply starting in 2020. The report of the “Nineteenth National Congress” of the Party clearly proposed phased goals for national defense and military construction: major progress in mechanization and informatization construction should be achieved by 2020; the military should basically be modernized by 2035, including the modernization of weapons and equipment. In this context, although downstream demand has been suppressed in the past two years due to military reform, delayed demand began to be released at an accelerated pace in 2020 according to industry chain research. Currently, the company has plenty of orders, and its performance is expected to continue to grow rapidly in the next few years. Risk factors: Consumer market development falls short of expectations, delayed product delivery. Investment advice: The company's Q3 performance has reached an inflection point. It is expected that Q4 performance will be released at an accelerated pace. At the same time, domestic missile demand will be booming in the next few years, and demand in supporting industries will be strong. Maintain the company's 2020-2022 EPS forecast at 0.66 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.63 yuan, respectively, and maintain the target price of 93.24 yuan, corresponding to 90 times the PE valuation in 2021, maintaining the “buy” rating.

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