Event: the company issued a forecast of results for the first three quarters, and expected to realize a net profit of 3647-37.97 million yuan, an increase of 160% over the same period last year.
We will actively overcome the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic and achieve a year-on-year increase in profits. In the first three quarters of the company, the net profit belonging to the shareholders of the listed company increased compared with the same period last year, mainly because the management of the company actively responded to and overcome the adverse effects of COVID-19 's epidemic, changed business thinking, reduced costs and increased efficiency, and achieved certain results. The company continues to maintain the investment in R & D projects, and the research fee-expense expenditure is about 24 million yuan (26.56 million yuan for the same period in 2019). The company estimates that the impact of non-recurrent profit and loss on net profit is about 10 million yuan (the impact of non-recurrent profit and loss on net profit in the same period in 2019 is 2.65 million yuan).
Ben Vimod is expected to enter the list of health insurance negotiations, which may promote a significant increase in drug penetration. On September 18, National Healthcare Security Administration announced the "list of drugs declared through formal examination through the adjustment of the national health insurance drug catalogue in 2020", in which Ben Vimod cream is on the list. If it enters the health insurance smoothly, the drug penetration rate is expected to increase significantly, benefiting more patients. According to our previous report, we estimate that the mature sales of this Vimod are expected to exceed 2 billion yuan. The company's 1.1 innovative drug Benvemod was launched in 2019 with mild to moderate stable psoriasis vulgaris. There are about 6.5 million patients with psoriasis in China, more than 90% of whom will be treated.
It is estimated that the market size of topical anti-psoriatic drugs is 10. 7-1.33 billion yuan. At present, the most commonly used drugs are carpotriol and hormones. The results of this Vimod clinical trial are better than those of the most commonly used drug carpotriol and are expected to be replaced. The amount of money for the current course of treatment of this Vimod cream is about 3000 yuan. assuming that the company's health insurance negotiations in the future are based on price, the price of the course of treatment is reduced to 2000 yuan, and the permeability is increased to 20%. The potential space for psoriasis is expected to exceed 2 billion yuan. At the same time, the company is also conducting a Ⅱ-Ⅲ phase multicenter clinical study of Benvermaude cream in the treatment of eczema. We expect the market size of eczema indications to reach 500-3.5 billion yuan.
Profit forecast and investment advice. It is estimated that the return net profit of the company from 2020 to 2022 is 0.95 RMB 1.67 / 275 million yuan respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.36 pm 0.63 pm 1.04 yuan respectively. The listing of the new drug Benvimod opens the room for the company's growth, and it is expected that with the release of the drug, the company's performance is expected to usher in a stage of rapid growth. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the Vimod volume is lower than expected, the purchase of consumable belt fails to win the bid or the price reduction exceeds the expected risk, and the risk of R & D failure.