From 9:00 p.m. to 10:30 p.m. local time on October 22, 2020 (9:00 a.m. to 10:30 a.m. on October 23, Beijing time), the final presidential debate for the 2020 election was held at Belmont University in Tennessee. This was also the last debate before this presidential election.

The two sides are working on a total of 11 areas: health incidents, election security, personal attacks, health insurance, fiscal stimulus bills, immigration policies, racial issues, climate change, and leadership.

Compared with the chaotic scene of the first presidential debate, a “mute” function has been added to this presidential debate, and the “order” at the debate site has also been greatly improved compared to the previous debate.

1. Who won the final presidential debate? Biden

According to poll data after the final presidential debate, Biden was superior during the debate.

According to CNN statistics after the presidential debate (Figure 1), 53% of people think Biden performed better in the debate, while only 39% think Trump performed better. Although it is believed that Biden's superior lead was lower than in the first debate, it is still far ahead of Trump.

YouGov's poll data can also be concluded that Biden's performance was superior. 54% of the public thought Biden performed better, and 35% of the public thought Trump performed better. Compared with the first debate, Biden's lead has further expanded.

2. What did the final debate argue about?

2.1. Health events

Trump believes he has handled the health incident properly, while Biden quoted a large amount of data to accuse Trump of improper epidemic prevention measures, saying that he will establish national epidemic prevention standards. The host first asked how Trump handled the health incident. Trump said that flights with China had been interrupted a long time ago and that the economy had been shut down. At the same time, production capacity for epidemic prevention materials such as masks, goggles, and ventilators had been greatly increased, and “showed up to say” that the risk of the health incident was not high.

Meanwhile, Biden quoted a large amount of data to show that the Trump administration's epidemic prevention measures were inappropriate, causing raging health incidents in the US. He also said that after being elected, he will continue to encourage people to wear masks and step up rapid testing for the virus. At the same time, he will also establish national epidemic prevention standards, and only by meeting the standards can the economy and schools be opened up. Since then, Trump has attacked Biden against his practice of suspending flights between China and the US at the beginning of the year and accusing Trump of being a xenophobic, while Biden countered that Trump had taken it out of context; he himself accused Trump of being a xenophobic in other places.

In terms of vaccines, Trump said that the vaccine will be developed soon and that the military will be used to distribute it quickly, while Biden said it is necessary to increase the transparency of vaccine development and accuses Trump of exaggerating the speed of vaccine development. The host asked Trump about vaccine research and development. Trump said that the vaccine will be developed soon and that the military will be used for rapid distribution.

Biden, on the other hand, was asked by the host how to increase Americans' confidence in getting the vaccine after the vaccine was successfully developed. Biden said it was necessary to increase the transparency of vaccine development and accuse the Trump administration of being opaque and lying. Previously, Trump even claimed that the epidemic could end before Easter. At the beginning of the year, he also concealed the seriousness from the public, and also made people drink bleach. Trump, on the other hand, retaliated by taking measures such as banning flights between China and the US at the beginning of the year, while drinking bleach was a joke.

In terms of balancing economic openness with epidemic prevention and control, Trump believes that economic development is more important, while Biden advocates establishing national epidemic prevention standards, and the economy can only be opened up if the standards are met. Trump said the health incident was not serious, that he needed to learn to coexist with the epidemic, and accused Biden of shutting down the entire country's economy and “locking himself in the basement.”

However, Biden claims that he will establish national epidemic prevention standards, such as the need to wear a mask and add glass barriers, etc., and that public places such as shopping malls, restaurants, bars, schools, etc. can only be opened if they meet the epidemic prevention standards. Trump, on the other hand, claims that this will increase corporate costs and cause many businesses to go out of business.

2.2. Election security

Biden questioned Trump's disregard for Russia and Iran's interference in the US election, and Trump avoided a positive response. Biden said it would protect national sovereignty and that interfering in the election would pay a price. Russia, Iran, and China may all interfere in the US election and question Trump's intervention in Russia and Iran being ignored because they want Trump to be elected. Trump, on the other hand, avoided responding positively and instead fought back from the perspective of personal attacks, accusing Biden's father and son of accepting bribes from Russia, Ukraine, and China.

2.3. personal attacks

Both sides have once again carried out personal attacks on each other through dark material previously revealed by the media. Trump accused the Biden family of accepting bribes from Russia, Ukraine, and China during his tenure as vice president, and claimed that the emails also included “giving 10% shares to big people.” Trump also blamed Biden's second son Hunter for being a failure and was expelled from the military because of his drug addiction. Biden, on the other hand, accuses Trump of evading taxes and secretly holding bank accounts in China. Both parties have denied or clarified this.

2.4. medicare

Trump accuses Biden of “socializing” health insurance, and Biden accuses Trump of not having a health insurance plan. Trump said he would end compulsory personal health insurance, drastically cut premiums, and have a better health insurance bill, accusing Biden of wanting to end private health insurance for more than 180 million people and socialize health insurance. Biden, on the other hand, claims that he supports private health insurance. It was Sanders who advocated abolishing health insurance rather than himself, but Sanders was already defeated by himself. Biden also said that health insurance will be a public choice for people and that drug prices will be lowered.

2.5. Fiscal Stimulus Act

Both sides accuse each other of causing delays in introducing the fiscal stimulus bill. Trump claimed that the fiscal stimulus bill could not be passed because Democratic Speaker Pelosi opposed it, accusing Democratic states of benefiting from the Democratic Party's stimulus bill. Biden, on the other hand, claims that the Democratic Party already had a fiscal stimulus plan (Hero Act), but the Republican Party's opposition prevented the bill from passing, and that he did not distinguish between Democratic states and Republican states. They are all US states, and they all require financial aid from the federal government to maintain the normal operation of state and local governments in schools, fire services, and community maintenance.

2.6. immigration policy

Trump accuses Biden of being idle during his time in office, and Biden accuses Trump's “separation of flesh and blood” policy of violating America's national ideals. Trump, on the other hand, claims that illegal immigrants have a higher crime rate. These illegal immigrants use their children to enter the US, adding that they can enter the US, but they need to enter the US legally. Trump also accused Biden of being vice president for 8 years and not doing anything about immigration policy. Meanwhile, Biden blamed Trump's “separation of flesh and blood” immigration policy for causing many children to be separated from their parents, and even caused the loss of children, and said that after becoming president, he would find a legal way for 10 million illegal immigrants to become US citizens within 100 days.

2.7. Racial issues

Trump claims that he is the president who cares the most about ethnic minorities since US President Lincoln, and Biden says Trump is the most racist president. Also, when asked by the host about the unfair treatment of people of color, Trump claimed that he is the president who cares the most about ethnic minorities since US President Lincoln, accuses Biden of making racial remarks in 1994, and that Biden's crime reform bill imprisoned many black people for minor crimes. Meanwhile, Biden said that Trump was the most racist president, such as the ban on Muslims, white supremacists, etc., and clarified that he opposed the criminal reform bill at the time. The reason he was unable to successfully overturn the bill was because Congress was controlled by the Republican Party at the time.

2.8. climate change

Trump believes that environmental protection measures will damage the US economy, while Biden believes that the development of the environmental protection industry will increase high-paying employment opportunities. Trump believes that the US environment has improved a lot during his administration. There is clean water and air, and America's carbon emissions are also the lowest in 35 years. Trump believes that environmental protection will damage the US energy industry and economy. The Paris climate agreement is unfair to the US, so he must insist on withdrawing.

Biden believes that developing the environmental protection industry will promote economic development. According to Wall Street estimates, it will add 18 million high-paying jobs, and insist on joining the Paris climate agreement. Furthermore, Biden said that his environmental plan has received support from many environmental organizations and labor organizations.

Trump believes that the development of traditional energy has increased job opportunities for ethnic minorities around him, while Biden claims that pollution from chemical plants causes many people to get cancer. When asked by the host that many people of color live next to chemical plants and are harmful to their health, Trump said that the development of the economy and factories has made these people all have jobs and increased their income.

However, using his own experience as a child, Biden said that these chemical plants release pollutants at will, and many people get cancer as a result. Biden also said that to achieve a transition in the petroleum industry, it is necessary to replace the petroleum industry with renewable energy, and eventually achieve the goal of zero net carbon emissions, but this transition process requires government subsidies.

2.9. leadership skills

Trump said he is now supported by all ethnic groups and classes, and Biden said that the current vote represents the dignity of the country. The final question of this debate is what I will say to those who oppose it when I am elected. Trump said that he is now supported by all ethnic groups and classes. His tax cuts have boosted economic growth, while Biden's tax increase will cause the US to decline. Biden, on the other hand, said that regardless of whether voters cast their votes for themselves, he would represent the US and work with the American people to promote economic development, clean energy, racial equality, etc., and said that the current vote is the dignity of the country.

3. Biden's election, almost no suspense

Biden is believed to have won this presidential debate, and there were no fatal mistakes, but even though Trump performed more prominently in this debate, he has regained his weakness. This presidential debate is irrelevant, and there is little doubt about Biden's election.

First, as we analyzed in the article “Biden Was Better at the First Presidential Debate” published on September 30, the outcome of the presidential debate had very little impact on the final election results. Since 2000, there have been 5 presidential elections and 15 presidential debates, but the poll results of 9 presidential debates are inconsistent with the final election results.

Second, the presidential election is nearing its end, and the vast majority of voters have decided which candidate to vote for. According to the University of Florida's U.S. Election Project (U.S. Election Project) statistics, as of October 22, 2020, the number of early voters in the US presidential election surged to 45 million, accounting for about one-third of the total number of voters in the 2016 presidential election. According to the latest American Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) poll data, 90% of respondents will not change their candidate tendencies after the presidential debate.

3.1. Democratic error correction mechanism: Opposing Trump is the main reason to support Biden

The term system is the most important error correction mechanism in the democratic system, and Americans are tired of the Trump administration's style of administration (Figure 2). The term system is the most important error correction mechanism in the popular system. When the presidential term is about to end, voters will reconsider whether their previous decisions were correct and correct their previous “mistakes” by re-voting.

In the 2016 presidential election, Trump won the election by gaining support from a large number of middle voters by inciting populist sentiment. However, in the past four years, the Trump administration's way of governing has to some extent violated America's core values such as democracy, freedom, and equality, and in recent months, Americans have also seen the Trump administration's incompetence in dealing with health events and economic recovery. Various signs have shown that the Trump administration's administration and leadership are seriously inadequate. The American public is tired of the Trump administration's governing style, and the opposition rate against the Trump administration has reached a record high.

The high opposition rate made Trump likely to lose his re-election. Generally speaking, the higher the opposition rate, the higher the turnout for its opponents because they “feel resentful” and vote for his competitor. Historically, according to data from the FiveThreeNight website (Figure 2), Trump's opposition rate has remained consistent with George W. Bush and Carter, and even slightly surpassed, while George W. Bush and Carter were unsuccessful in re-election. The remaining 6 successfully re-elected presidents all had lower popular opposition ratings than Trump's.

Opposing Trump is the main reason for supporting Biden. Low expectations are one of the important reasons why Biden's approval rating exceeded expectations after his first presidential debate.

According to Pew Research Center poll data (Figs. 3 and 4), the main reason for supporting Biden is “he is not Trump”, which accounts for 56%. In comparison, the main reason for supporting Trump is his “leadership and performance,” and “he is not Biden” accounts for only 19%. Previously, outsiders were worried that Biden was not fit for the presidency. Although Biden was only 4 years older than Trump, there was a big gap between his state of mind and ability to express his speech and Trump, so outsiders had low expectations for Biden during the presidential debate. However, Biden's outstanding performance in the first presidential debate dispelled the concerns of some middle voters. Exceeding expectations was one of the important reasons why Biden's lead expanded after the first presidential debate.

3.2. Early voting voters surged, and Biden was far ahead of Trump

The surge in early voting voters in the 2020 US presidential election broke records, and the Democratic Party's approval rating was twice that of the Republican Party (Figure 5). Due to the pandemic, a large number of voters voted early in 2020 to avoid their votes being deemed invalid. According to statistics from the University of Florida's U.S. Election Project (U.S. Election Project), as of October 22, 2020, the number of voters who voted early in the US presidential election surged to 45 million, breaking the record for the highest early voting in history, accounting for about one-third of the total number of voters in the 2016 presidential election. Among early voting votes, the Democratic Party's approval rating was as high as 51.5%, double that of the Republican Party of 26.3%. Among the three swing states with available data, Biden's average approval rating is 46.37%, far ahead of the Republican Party and 32.97%.

3.3. Biden's campaign fundraising continues to break record records, leading Trump by a large margin

Biden's August and September campaign fundraising continuously broke the US presidential campaign record in a single month, leading Trump by a large margin (Figure 7). On the one hand, campaign fund-raising represents that the party is more supported by the public; on the other hand, political donations can also be used to carry out propaganda activities such as TV commercials and public speeches. Judging from the 10 US elections from 1980 to 2016, all 7 were won by parties that raised a lot of campaign funds, with only 3 exceptions in 1984, 1996, and 2016 (Figure 6).

3.4. The 2016 poll “rollover” phenomenon is unlikely to be repeated

Biden's lead in a comprehensive national poll is far higher than Hillary's lead in 2016, and the “security border” is even greater (Figure 8). In the 2016 presidential election against Trump, although Hillary led Trump in comprehensive national polling data for most of the time, her lead was not significant. Most of the time remained between 1% and 4%, and rarely more than 5%.

However, in 2020, Biden led Trump by more than 7% overall in comprehensive national polling data. After the first presidential debate and Trump's diagnosis, the lead once extended to more than 10%, which is much larger than Hillary's “security border” in 2016.

Biden maintained a lead in all six swing state polls, and his lead was mostly higher than the exaggeration of Hillary's approval rating in the 2016 polls. Biden has a “safe border” in the major swing states (Figure 9). According to the latest state-level poll data on the RCP website, Biden maintained a lead in all six swing states, leading Trump by an average of 4.07%. Moreover, the leading edge of Florida (29 votes), Pennsylvania (20 votes), Michigan (16 votes), and Arizona (11 votes) surpassed the exaggerated support for Hillary in the 2016 polls (poll data minus actual election data), and Biden has “safe borders” in major swing states. Meanwhile, according to the RCP state-level poll (Figure 10), Biden will get 232 votes with a relatively high degree of certainty, which is still 38 votes from swing states (winning 270 votes to win the presidential election), while Trump will more definitely get 125 votes, which is far different from Biden.

In addition to the “security borders” mentioned above, the accuracy of the 2020 poll data will also be more accurate than 2016. The 2016 poll data was affected by many factors such as the “Shy Trump Effect” (Shy Trump Effect), swinging voters, sample selection, and convergent utility, which ultimately caused the poll data to “roll over.”

However, after the “black swan incident” broke out in the 2016 US election, various polling agencies and research institutes began to re-examine the accuracy and flaws of the poll data, improving the accuracy of the polls. Furthermore, phenomena such as “supporting Trump's shame” and swinging voters in 2020 also declined significantly compared to 2016, which is conducive to improving the accuracy of poll data.

4. Tips for upcoming general election events

1. November 3, 2020 Presidential Election Day;

2. From mid-November to December 4, 2020, each state will verify the election results;

3. December 8, 2020 is the deadline for resolving any election disputes;

4. On December 14, 2020, the Electoral College voted;

5. January 6, 2021, national accounting slip;

6. On January 20, 2021, the new president was sworn in.

Risk warning: Trump takes extreme measures to return to election