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新光光电(688011)投资价值分析报告:导弹光学制导龙头 校企联动执掌核心

中信證券 ·  Sep 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Domestic demand for missiles is booming, and supporting industries are also booming. Using comparable companies for valuation, the average valuation of comparable companies in 2021 was 46.51 times. In view of the company's absolute leading position in missile optical guidance, the application of key cutting-edge models, and the potential explosive performance in the next 2 years, 90 times PE was given in 2021, corresponding to a target price of 93.24 yuan, which covered the “buy” rating for the first time. Deeply involved in military optoelectronic equipment for more than ten years, serving the guidance business. The company's main products revolve around the entire missile chain, mainly optical guidance systems (accounting for 41.00% of revenue), followed by target and scenario simulation (accounting for 30.92% of revenue). Revenue and net profit in 2019 were 192 million and 60 million respectively. Corresponding to 2016-2019 revenue and net profit CAGR of 6.49% and -3.61%, respectively, the development was relatively stable. Currently, the company's top two customers, the Aerospace Science and Technology Group, are the main forces in missile production in China. As defense spending increases, the company cooperates closely with the two major groups, and its performance is expected to reach a new level with the development of the missile industry. The R&D team is strong, breaking the bottleneck in the development of high-speed guidance technology. The military industry has high technical content and occupies a high position in national scientific and technological innovation. The company's technical team with the chairman as the core won the first prize for national defense science and technology progress in 2016. R&D and technical personnel account for 52% of the total workforce, and have strong technical strength. In response to problems such as the infrared imaging guidance system of missiles traveling at high speed not working properly, the company proposed a new optical imaging guidance technology based on the image square scanning principle for the first time in China, and applied it in engineering, making great contributions to the development of science and technology in China's national defense industry. The global missile industry remains booming, and downstream demand continues to grow. The industry generally anticipates that China's defense spending will double during the “14th Five-Year Plan” period. Fueled by factors such as geopolitical uncertainty and the restart of the arms race, missiles are expected to remain high. Forecast International released a global missile analysis report. It is estimated that in 2019-2022, global production of various types of missiles will reach 158,278, with an output value of nearly 40 billion US dollars. Of the missile cost, the guidance system is as high as 40%, and the company has great potential to develop as a leading company in accurate guidance. Risk factors: Consumer market development falls short of expectations, delayed product delivery. Investment suggestions: Domestic missile demand is booming, and demand from supporting industries is strong. The company's EPS is expected to be 0.66 yuan, 1.04 yuan, and 1.63 yuan respectively in 2020-2022, with corresponding valuations of 84x, 54x, and 34x respectively. Using comparable companies for valuation, the average valuation of comparable companies in 2021 was 46.51 times, which was 90 times higher than the average valuation of comparable companies, which was 90 times higher than the average valuation of comparable companies, mainly due to the company's absolute leading position in missile optical guidance and the application of key cutting-edge models, and the potential explosive potential of performance in the next 2 years. The corresponding target price was 93.24 yuan, which covered a “buy” rating for the first time.

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