This article is edited from Guotai Junan's Ant Group: digital Financial Power, Future growth prospects, Societe Generale Securities, how did Alipay become Ant Financial Services Group? "
Summary:Ant Group is about to launch A、 HShares listed in both places at the same time, the company's current revenue volume of more than 100 billion, 2020H1Net profit as high as 219100 million yuan. According to institutional analysis, the business layout of Ant Group platform has been gradually improved, and the downward trend of expenses is obvious, and it will enter a period of explosive profit growth in the future. Horizontal comparison of PayPal Holdings Inc(the world's leading online payment company), with a reasonable valuation of 2400To 3200One billion US dollars.
Ant Group, the country's leading digital payment and digital financial technology platform
Ant Group originated from Alipay, and its development has mainly gone through three stages.From 2004 to 2012, we have focused on payment business; since 2013, we have tried digital financial services in financial areas other than payment-micro-lending, financial management, insurance, etc.; in recent years, we have made great efforts to distribute financial technology and innovative business.
According to the prospectus, Alipay currently connects more than 1 billion users and more than 80 million merchants in China.China's largest digital payment and digital financial technology platform.
Backed by BABA ecology, Ant Natural has a rich customer base and application scenarios, through payment diversion, financial realization, ants continue to innovate business models, and at the same time continue to obtain all kinds of financial licenses to build financial business with science and technology as the core.
In terms of ownership structure, BABA is the largest shareholder with 33 per cent, followed by Hangzhou Junhan with 28.45 per cent, followed by Hangzhou Junao, with Ma holding 8.8 per cent and 50 per cent of the voting rights.
Second, revenue increases steadily, profits enter a period of explosive growth, and digital financial technology platform is the main source.
Ant Group currently ownsThree main businessesDigital payment and merchant services, digital financial technology platform, and innovative businessIn recent years, the company's overall revenue has maintained rapid growth, while profits have been greatly released..
In 2019, the company achieved revenue of 120.62 billion yuan, year-on-year + 41% dome 2020H revenue of 72.53 billion, year-on-year + 38%; 2019 net profit of 18.07 billion, year-on-year + 738% equity 2020H net profit of 21.923 billion, year-on-year + 1059%.
From a structural point of view, the proportion of digital financial technology platforms is increasing.Surpassed digital payments and merchant services as the largest source of revenue in 2019
In the first half of 2020, the revenue of digital financial technology platform (including micro-loan technology, financial management technology, insurance technology) accounted for 63.39%, digital payment accounted for 35.86%, and the remaining 0.75% came from innovative business.
From the perspective of cost compositionThe total operating cost of Ant Group mainly includes operating costs (transaction costs, service costs, operation and maintenance costs), sales expenses, management expenses and R & D expenses.
ROE in 2017 and 2019 was 12.7% and 10.4% respectively. 2020H1 benefited from the rapid growth of income and the rebound of gross profit margin of the digital financial technology platform.AnnualizationROEUp to 21.7%Reflecting its strong performance growth.
Guotai Junan's analysisAnt Group holds a large number of high-quality C-end and small and micro customers based on the precipitation of mobile payment business to enjoy the online dividend of financial services. At the same time, it operates in a light asset mode and collects technical service fees, which does not involve specific financial business, and can achieve rapid growth.
The business layout based on the company platform has been gradually improved.To form the overall layout of the main revenue contributed by digital payment drainage and digital financial technology businessAnd the cost is invested in2018After reaching the peak in the year, the downward trend is obvious., 2019 and 2020H decreased by 35% and 24% respectively compared with the same period last year.Guotai Junan believes that the profits of Ant Group will enter a period of explosive growth in the future..
Valuation: stone from other mountains, PayPal Holdings IncCurrently has a very high valuation
According to the prospectus, Ant Group has previously gone through four rounds of financing, the most recent of which has been valued at $150 billion, and the market now estimates its IPO at between $2000 and $240 billion.
Societe Generale Securities Analysis, PayPal Holdings IncIt is a leading online payment company in the world, which can be used as a reference for the valuation of Ant Group to some extent..
As shown in the following tableAnts are here.2014The profitability of 2008 is inferior to that of PayPal Holdings Inc.The reason is that PayPal Holdings Inc's core payment business had higher transaction rates overseas at that time, while Ant took the payment business as the entrance to get customers, with low cost as the primary consideration.However, as ants continue to develop diversified value-added services, they can cash out a large number of users.2020H1Net profit of ants 219.23100 million higher than PayPal Holdings Inc16.1 of100 million US dollarsAnts are showing stronger performance growth than the latter.
PayPal Holdings Inc went public in 2015, with a market capitalization of US $44.3 billion and 38 times PE at the end of that year.
From 2015 to 2019, PayPal Holdings Inc's performance grew steadily, with 2020H1 achieving revenue of US $9.88 billion and net profit of US $1.61 billion, up 17 per cent and 8 per cent respectively over the same period last year. According to the closing price on September 9, 2020, PayPal Holdings Inc's latest market capitalization is US $228.3 billion, with PE as high as 89 times.
Consider the future 2-3 of Ant Group.The growth rate of annual revenue and net profit is likely to remain at 30% and 40%.The range, or even better, will be much better than 2015PayPal Holdings IncPost-listing data, especially considering the growth prospects of both, the ant valuation should be higher than the latter's post-listing average of 50.Double PE.
And based on Ant 2020First half net profit 219The net profit for the whole year is estimated to be about 328.To 438If the company is worth 100 million yuan, it can be expected that the company will be valued at 2400 yuan.To 3200Billion US dollars, as long as it falls in this range, should be considered reasonable.
