The policy is favorable, and the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaics in Europe is expected to reach 84 GW from 2020 to 2030

東吳證券 · Sep 25, 2020 14:23 · Researches

2020年9月17日，欧盟委员会正式发布了《2030年气候目标计划》以及政策影响评估报告，提出将2030年温室气体减排目标从40%提高为55%。按计划，欧洲议会将于今年10月就「气候法草案」投票表决，于2021年6月前将修订相关立法。

欧盟减排提速，推动可再生能源占比提升

再提速，欧盟减排高歌猛进。为应对气候危机、尽早实现碳中和的目标，一直以来欧盟在相关政策制定上态度积极，2014年至19年，欧盟对2030年温室气体排放量较1990年减少的目标一直定为40%，2014年1月欧盟发布气候和能源政策新目标白皮书，提出到2030年欧盟温室气体排放量将比1990年减少40%;2018年，欧盟委员会提出2050年实现「碳中和」的长期愿景，2020年3月以立法形式确立其为政治目标。2020年9月11日欧洲议会环境委员会首次提出要将2030年减排目标定为60%，9月11日欧盟委员会发布2030气候目标计划，正式提出将2030年温室气体减排目标由原有的40%提升至55%，并在2021年6月前完成相关立法审查，减排目标进一步上修。

政策利好刺激，新能源加速发展

基于减排目标测算，2020-2030年间欧洲光伏年均装机量有望80GW+：2030年气候目标计划以及政策影响评估报告中指出，可再生能源消费目标由32%提高至38-40%才能实现减排55%的目标。基于此，我们对2020~2030年期间欧洲的光伏装机进行预测(假设欧洲套用欧盟标准)，测算欧洲光伏年均装机量有望达到84GW，风+光装机有望达到110GW。主要基于以下3点假设：

(1)19年欧洲可再生能源消费占比16.5%，我们假设2030年欧洲可再生能源消费占比保守估计在38%;(2)2014~2019年期间，欧洲一次能源消费复合增速为0.41%，假设2020~2030年期间由于节能减排，一次能源消费复合增速为0;假设2020~2030年期间水电、除风光其他可再生能源发电复合增速分别为1%、6%(2014~2019年间复合增速分别为-0.36%、3.72%);(3)假设光伏和风电发电量增量占比在65%：35%，光伏年均可利用小时数在1300h，风电年均可利用小时数在2200h。

本次欧洲上调碳减排目标至55%，对应于可再生能源消费目标由32%提高至38-40%，按照38%测算，相当于光伏年均新增装机从58GW上调至84GW，风+光年均新增装机从76GW上调至110GW，碳减排目标上调对光伏装机刺激力度大。

光伏逐步成长为主力能源形式：从2019年欧洲发电结构看，主要能源还是以火电为主，占比40%，可再生能源主要以水电、风电为主，合计占比36.7%，光伏发电占比仅3.9%。假设2030年可再生能源消费结构占比提高到38%的水平，据我们测算，预计到2030年，火电地位弱化，发电占仅22.2%;可再生能源发电占比约65%，相比2019年提升超20pct。光伏逐渐成长为主力能源形式，发电占比27.1%，成为欧洲发电结构中占比最大的能源形式。

全球范围看，碳排放趋严，利好可再生能源发展

新政策密集落地，碳排放标准趋严，可再生能源发展势不可挡。全球对于碳排放、气候变化的关注和重视程度逐渐提高，大国均提出近5-10年碳排放目标，强调未来30年内的可再生能源发电占比目标，带动全球向「碳中和」方向发展。

中国：十四五规划即将出台征求意见稿，2019年非化石能源占能源消费比重已达15.3%，提前一年完成「十三五」规划目标。考虑到成本快速下降，且中国高层领导与政策层面对可再生能源的重视，我们预计非化石能源消费占比20%战略目标将提前完成。碳排放方面，我国计划到2030年单位GDP的碳强度较2005年下降60-65%。

德国：本周德国联邦财政部发布的《可再生能源》(2021)修正案草案中指出，1)2021-2028年，德国将对18.8GW(分布式5.3GW+集中式13.5GW)的光伏发电项目进行公开招标，旨在促进光伏发电成本的进一步降低，预计到2028年大型地面光伏电站的价格将从0.075下降至0.059欧元/kWh，8年内降幅达21.3%。2)取消对可再生能源电站为期20年的补贴政策，这标志着可再生能源发展由从政策驱动转向市场驱动。2019年德国可再生能源占比36.6%，该政策的出台，将刺激可再生能源发电的市场化发展，早日实现25年可再生能源占比40-50%、2030年占比65%的目标。

印度：今年9月莫迪总理在世界太阳能技术峰会上指出，印度可再生能源目标将再次上调，到2022年非化石燃料发电量目标由175GW提升至220GW。目前印度的可再生能源占比仅8.7%，远低于世界平均水平，随近年来全球光伏风电市场的迅速发展，印度政府多次上调发展指引，以高目标推动可再生能源产业的发展，以实现到2030年可再生能源占比达到40%的目标。

美国：今年7月拜登提出气候计划，未来4年投资2万亿美元加强美国的清洁能源基础设施建设，以减少对化石燃料的依赖，力争在2035年前实现无碳发电，这意味着美国2030年可再生能源发电占比50%的目标将进一步上调，若此项计划得以实施，我们预计美国大型地面电站规模将进一步扩大，光伏装机将持续高增长。

持续降本驱动光伏成长为主力能源：光伏能源是过去十年间成本降幅最大的可再生能源，当前时点海外已实现平价，国内明年全面进入平价时代，随着光伏度电成本及储能成本的持续下降，光伏或从辅助能源逐步成长为主力能源。

On September 17, 2020, the European Commission officially released the “2030 Climate Target Plan” and the policy impact assessment report, proposing to raise the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target from 40% to 55%. According to the plan, the European Parliament will vote on the “draft climate law” in October this year, and the relevant legislation will be revised by June 2021.

The EU is reducing emissions at an accelerated pace, promoting an increase in the share of renewable energy

Accelerating further, the EU is making great strides in reducing emissions.In order to cope with the climate crisis and achieve the goal of carbon neutrality as soon as possible, the EU has always taken a positive attitude in formulating relevant policies. From 2014 to 19, the EU set a 40% reduction target for greenhouse gas emissions in 2030 compared to 1990. In January 2014, the EU issued a white paper on new goals for climate and energy policy, which proposed that the EU's greenhouse gas emissions would be reduced by 40% compared to 1990 by 2030; in 2018, the European Commission proposed a long-term vision of “carbon neutrality” by 2050, which was established as a political goal in the form of legislation in March 2020. On September 11, 2020, the European Parliament's Environment Committee proposed for the first time that the 2030 emissions reduction target should be set at 60%.On September 11, the European Commission released the 2030 climate target plan, officially proposing to raise the 2030 greenhouse gas emission reduction target from 40% to 55%, complete the relevant legislative review by June 2021, and further revise the emission reduction target.

Favorable policies stimulate development of new energy sources

Based on emission reduction target estimates, the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaics in Europe between 2020 and 2030 is expected to be 80 GW+:According to the 2030 Climate Target Plan and Policy Impact Assessment Report,Only by increasing the renewable energy consumption target from 32% to 38-40% can the target of reducing emissions by 55% be achieved.Based on this, we forecast photovoltaic installations in Europe from 2020 to 2030 (assuming that Europe applies EU standards), and estimates that the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaics in Europe is expected to reach 84 GW, and wind and light installations are expected to reach 110 GW. It is mainly based on the following 3 assumptions:

(1) Renewable energy consumption in Europe accounted for 16.5% in 2019. We assume that Europe's share of renewable energy consumption in 2030 is conservatively estimated to be 38%; (2) From 2014 to 2019, the compound growth rate of primary energy consumption in Europe is 0.41%, assuming that the compound growth rate of primary energy consumption in 2020 to 2030 due to energy saving and emission reduction is 0; assuming that the compound growth rate of hydropower and renewable energy generation other than wind energy generation during the period 2020 to 2030 is 1% and 6%, respectively (the compound growth rates for 2014-2019 are -0.36%, respectively, 3.72%); (3) Assuming that the increase in photovoltaic and wind power generation accounts for 65%: 35%, the average number of hours that photovoltaics can be used per year is 1,300 hours, and the average number of hours that wind power can be used per year is 2,200 hours.

Europe raised its carbon emissions reduction target to 55% this time, corresponding to the increase in renewable energy consumption target from 32% to 38-40%. According to 38% estimates, it is equivalent to increasing the average annual installed capacity of photovoltaics from 58 GW to 84 GW, and the average annual new installed capacity of wind and light was raised from 76 GW to 110 GW. The increase in carbon emission reduction targets is a strong stimulus for photovoltaic installations.

Photovoltaics is gradually growing into the main form of energy:Looking at Europe's power generation structure in 2019, the main energy source is still thermal power, accounting for 40%. Renewable energy is mainly hydropower and wind power, accounting for 36.7% in total, and photovoltaic power generation accounts for only 3.9%. Assuming that the share of renewable energy consumption rises to 38% in 2030, according to our estimates, it is estimated that by 2030, the position of thermal power will weaken, with electricity generation accounting for only 22.2%; renewable energy will account for about 65% of electricity generation, an increase of more than 20 pct compared to 2019. Photovoltaics has gradually grown into the main form of energy, accounting for 27.1% of electricity generation, making it the largest energy form in Europe's power generation structure.

On a global scale, carbon emissions are becoming stricter, which is beneficial to the development of renewable energy

New policies are being implemented intensively, carbon emission standards are becoming stricter, and the development of renewable energy is unstoppable.Global attention and attention to carbon emissions and climate change is gradually increasing. Major countries have proposed carbon emission targets for the past 5-10 years, emphasizing the target share of renewable energy generation within the next 30 years, driving the world in the direction of “carbon neutrality.”

China:The 14th Five-Year Plan will soon be released for comments. In 2019, non-fossil energy accounted for 15.3% of energy consumption, completing the “13th Five-Year Plan” target one year ahead of schedule. Considering the rapid decline in costs and the importance China's senior leaders and policies place on renewable energy, we expect that the strategic target of 20% of non-fossil energy consumption will be completed ahead of schedule.In terms of carbon emissions, China plans to reduce carbon intensity per unit of GDP by 2030 by 60-65% compared to 2005.

Germany:According to the draft amendment to “Renewable Energy” (2021) released by the German Federal Ministry of Finance this week, 1) in 2021-2028, Germany will conduct public tenders for 18.8 GW (distributed 5.3 GW+ centralized 13.5 GW) photovoltaic power generation projects with the aim of promoting a further reduction in the cost of photovoltaic power generation. It is expected that by 2028, the price of large-scale ground-based photovoltaic power plants will drop from 0.075 to 0.059 Euros/kWh, a decrease of 21.3% within 8 years. 2) The elimination of the 20-year subsidy policy for renewable energy power plants marks a shift in renewable energy development from policy driven to market driven.Renewable energy in Germany accounted for 36.6% in 2019. The introduction of this policy will stimulate the market-based development of renewable energy power generation and achieve the target of 40-50% renewable energy in 25 and 65% in 2030 as soon as possible.

India:Prime Minister Modi stated at the World Solar Technology Summit in September this year that India's renewable energy target will be raised again.The target for non-fossil fuel power generation will be raised from 175 GW to 220 GW by 2022. India currently accounts for only 8.7% of renewable energyIt is far below the world average. With the rapid development of the global photovoltaic wind power market in recent years, the Indian government has raised development guidelines many times to promote the development of the renewable energy industry with high goals.To achieve the goal of reaching 40% of renewable energy by 2030.

United States of America:In July of this year, Biden proposed a climate plan.Invest $2 trillion over the next 4 years to strengthen America's clean energy infrastructure to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and strive to achieve carbon-free generation by 2035Electricity, this means that the US target of 50% of renewable energy generation by 2030 will be further raised. If this plan is implemented, we expect the scale of large-scale ground-based power plants in the US to expand further, and photovoltaic installations will continue to grow at a high rate.

Continued cost reduction drives the growth of photovoltaics as the main energy source:Photovoltaic energy is the renewable energy with the biggest drop in cost over the past ten years. At present, overseas prices have been achieved, and the country will fully enter the era of affordability next year. As the cost of photovoltaics electricity and energy storage costs continue to decline, photovoltaics may gradually grow from auxiliary energy to the main energy source.

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政策利好，2020~2030年欧洲光伏年均装机量有望达到84GW