Core viewpoints
The company is the third-generation insulin leader in China and has a good momentum of development. Since its establishment in 1998, the company has been focused on the field of diabetes, successfully developed the first recombinant human insulin, long-acting and quick-acting recombinant insulin analogues independently developed in China, and took the lead in large-scale production. In addition, the company's products under research include DPP-4 inhibitor Liglitine tablets and Ciglitine Phosphate tablets, which is one of the most competitive enterprises in the field of diabetes in China. In recent years, the company has stepped into the track of rapid development. From 2013 to 2019, the company's revenue and return net profit CAGR were 26.9% and 33.7%, respectively. In the future, with the gradual increase of the third-generation insulin permeability, the company's revenue and profit level is expected to further improve.
The insulin market is booming, and it is the right time for domestic replacement. Affected by the aging population, urbanization and the increase in overweight people, the CAGR of the domestic insulin market has reached 14% in the past five years, much higher than the global growth rate in the same period. At present, the market share of foreign pharmaceutical companies in the field of diabetes is much higher than that of domestic enterprises, but from the sales data of sample hospitals, Ganli insulin products have the performance of import substitution, and the market share is expected to continue to increase in the future. In addition, with the support of health insurance policy, grass-roots patients continue to increase their acceptance of the third generation of insulin. with reference to the global sales pattern of insulin products, the replacement of the third generation of insulin to the second generation of insulin is the general trend, and the company has benefited obviously.
Join hands with international pharmaceutical companies to actively layout overseas business. The United States is a big country with diabetes, and the scale of insulin market is in the forefront of the world. As the pioneer and leader of biological generic drugs in the world, Sanders has approved 8 kinds of biological generic drugs in Europe, America, Japan and other markets, and there is still 1 case under development. Gan Li authorized Sanders to sell the company's insulin products exclusively in the United States, Canada, Europe and other places. With the help of Sanders' network of mature sales channels overseas and the good acceptance of Sanders by terminal doctors and patients, Ganli Insulin is expected to release its dose overseas quickly.
Financial forecasts and investment suggestions
We predict that from 2020 to 2022, the company will achieve a net profit of 1.356 million yuan, 1.601 billion yuan, and the corresponding EPS will be 2.41 million yuan, 2.85 yuan, 3.21 yuan. According to the comparable company, it will be given 59 times PE in 2020, corresponding to the target price of 142.19 yuan, with a "buy" rating for the first time.
Risk hint
If the insulin collection drive exceeds expectations or the sales of products such as glargine insulin are not good, it will affect the performance of the company.
If the research and development of innovative drugs is not as expected, it will affect the medium-and long-term development prospects of the company.