Main points of investment:
The total income was affected by the carry-over, and the growth rate of land and infrastructure income increased. In terms of revenue, the company's main business achieved operating income of 37.143 billion yuan, down 3.5% from the same period last year; the net profit attributed to shareholders of listed companies was 6.062 billion yuan, down 28.52% from the same period last year, and basic earnings per share was 2.01 yuan, down 27.7% from the same period last year.
In terms of itemized business, the company's real estate development income was 15.959 billion yuan, accounting for 43%, down 30% from the same period last year; industrial development service income was 13.209 billion yuan, accounting for 36%, an increase of 11% over the same period last year; land consolidation was 3.427 billion yuan, accounting for 9%, an increase of 173% over the same period last year; infrastructure construction was 2.853 billion yuan, accounting for 8%, an increase of 282% over the same period last year. Affected by the epidemic, the company lagged behind in the delivery and settlement of real estate projects in major areas such as Huanjing, resulting in a year-on-year decline in real estate business revenue. In terms of profit margin, the company's 2020H1 gross profit margin was 47%, down 1.8% from the same period last year. In terms of itemized business, the gross profit margin of real estate development business was 35%, 1.12% lower than the same period last year, and the gross profit margin of industrial development services was 85%, an increase of 1.54% over the same period last year. The 2020H1 net interest rate of the company was 16.2%, and the score was 13.08%, down 8.26% from the same period last year.
Return to business logic and continuously improve the company's financial management ability. 2020H1 paid close attention to the implementation of operating payback, and the payback rate increased by 11 percentage points compared with the same period last year. The company continues to increase investment in resource reserves, especially land investment in commercial real estate and related businesses, from 10.7 billion yuan in 2019H1 to 13.4 billion yuan in 2020H1. In this case, the cash flow generated by the operating activities of 2020H1 is-18.5 billion yuan, which is 2 billion yuan less than that of 2019H1. In addition, the company controls the debt ratio, optimizes leverage, and the asset-liability ratio is 0.76 percentage points lower than in 2019.
Sales to Beijing, commercial real estate to complete the target city layout. The overall sales of 2020H1 company affected by the epidemic declined compared with the same period last year, but the structure gradually removed from Beijing, and the proportion of 2020H1 sales outside Beijing increased from 58.21% of 2019H1 to 64.98%. The results of remote expansion are remarkable. The business of the industrial new town overcame difficulties. H1 added 176 new enterprises to the park, signed investment of 62.46 billion yuan, industrial service income of 13.2 billion yuan, an increase of 11.24% over the same period last year, and industrial service income of 10.2 billion yuan outside Beijing, an increase of 17% over the same period last year. In the field of commercial real estate, the company has obtained four new commercial complex projects, won the bid for one project agent construction service, and locked in a pre-urban renewal project service provider, covering Nanjing, Wuhan, Guangzhou, Harbin, Dongguan, Shenzhen and other key cities, basically completing the layout in the target city.
As of 2020H1, the stock land reserve area was 1274 million square meters, an increase of 2.16 million square meters over the beginning of the year.
Investment advice: "better than the big market". We estimate that the company's EPS in 2020 will be 4.65 yuan per share (the total share capital affected by the company's repurchase and repurchase in July-August), and give the company a valuation of 5-6 times PE in 2020. the corresponding market value is about 909-109.1 billion yuan, the corresponding reasonable value range is 23.23-27.88 yuan, and the corresponding PEG in 2020 is 0.23-0.27.
Risk hint: affected by the purchase restrictions around Beijing in the previous two years, the gross profit margin of real estate projects carried forward may decline in recent years.
