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中原证券(601375):自营表现不佳 归母净利润同比-87%

Central Plains Securities (601375): poor self-performance and net profit of return-87% compared with the same period last year

海通證券 ·  Sep 15, 2020 00:00  · Researches

[event] the operating income of Zhongyuan Securities in the first half of 2020 was 1.25 billion yuan,-2.9% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 31 million yuan,-87.1% compared with the same period last year, corresponding to 0.01yuan EPS and 0.32% ROE. In the second quarter of 2020, the operating income was 813 million yuan, + 29% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit was 98 million yuan, + 69% compared with the same period last year. 2020H1 brokers, investment banks, asset management, interest and self-management account for 28%, 8%, 2%, 1% and 21% of operating income, respectively.

Focus on customer operation and constantly strengthen digital and intelligent applications. 2020H1 realized brokerage income of 344 million yuan, + 14.4% compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the total trading amount of the company's stock fund was 845.272 billion yuan, with a market share of 4.46%.

The balance of the company is 5.968 billion yuan, which is + 18.79% compared with the same period last year. The company speeds up the integrated layout online and offline, and continuously strengthens the digital and intelligent application through the construction of "three terminals and one micro" platform and service push. Focus on the comprehensive service capacity building of branches, strengthen bank-securities cooperation and securities-enterprise cooperation, and start with "investment business" and "fund sales", pay close attention to basic customers and basic assets, focus on core customers, and improve customer satisfaction.

Investment banking business to strengthen provincial management of state-owned enterprises services, investment banking business scope of multi-field, all-round expansion. 2020H1 realized 99 million yuan in investment banking revenue, + 9.9% from the same period last year. The underwriting scale of shares and bonds is + 76% and + 82% respectively compared with the same period last year, with the main equity underwriting scale of 7 billion yuan, ranking 18th; and 1 refinancing, with an underwriting scale of 7 billion yuan. The main underwriting scale of bonds is 7.3 billion yuan, ranking 62nd, of which corporate bonds, corporate bonds and local government bonds are 5.8 billion yuan, 800 million yuan and 700 million yuan respectively. There are 19 IPO reserve projects, 6 main boards, 2 Science and Technology Innovation Board and 3 gem.

Enhance the ability of active management as the core to help the company's wealth management transformation. 2020H1 realized asset management income of 20 million yuan,-50.7% of the same period last year. By the end of June 20, the total size of the company's asset management business was RMB 6.836 billion, up from-10% at the beginning of the year. While strengthening the existing product management, the company's asset management business should adopt differentiated and moderate scale business strategies, actively distribute the equity investment business, gradually enrich the asset management product line, and help the company's wealth management transformation. At the same time, we will strengthen our own compliance risk control and management capabilities, steadily promote the establishment of standardized products, actively promote the rectification and reform of large collection products, and consolidate the foundation of future asset management business.

Affected by changes in the fair value of transactional financial assets, proprietary investment income (including fair value) declined compared with the same period last year.

2020H1 realized net investment income (including fair value) of 263 million yuan,-47.5% compared with the same period last year. The investment income (including fair value) in the second quarter was 178 million yuan, which was + 12% compared with the same period last year. In terms of corporate equity investment, we will strengthen macro-industry and variety research, and pay attention to the structured opportunities in the market. In terms of investment transactions, we will continue to promote the transformation of the business model, improve the stability of the income structure, and capture market volatility opportunities through in-depth study of the laws of market operation. In terms of sales transactions, strengthen customer maintenance and expansion, dig deep into the sales market, and increase the income of bond sales business.

[investment suggestion] We estimate that the EPS of the company in 2020-2022E is 0.02,0.03,0.03 yuan respectively, and the net assets per share are 2.25,2.25,2.25 yuan respectively. Considering that the company has always adhered to a high dividend rate, cash dividends have accounted for an average of more than 58% of the net profit of the year in the past three years. Long-term sustained and stable high dividends not only help to enhance the enthusiasm of investors, but also show the management's confidence in the future performance improvement of the company. In addition, Atroph listing, strong financing capacity, capital consumption business is expected to accelerate growth. We give it a slightly higher valuation than the industry, giving it 2.2-2.4x Pmax B in 2020, with a reasonable value range of 4.96-5.41 yuan, maintaining a "neutral" rating.

Risk hint: the continued downturn in the market leads to a decline in the scale of business, and market supervision is further strengthened.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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