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东方时尚(603377):飞行培训合同持续推进 下半年经营有望持续回暖

廣發證券 ·  Oct 19, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Core view: The subsidiary signed pilot course training cooperation with China Southern Airlines, and aviation training contracts were continuously implemented during the year. Recently, the company announced that its subsidiary Oriental Fashion General Aviation received a “Transaction Notice” from the China Southern Airlines Flying Corps Training Management Department, confirming that it is China Southern Airlines' initial training course training transaction unit for domestic flight trainees, with an estimated amount of 86.558 million yuan. Since this year, General Aviation has continuously signed training contracts with China Southern Airlines and Xiamen Airlines. Currently, the cumulative order amount has reached 169 million yuan. The civil aviation pilot training market has great potential and is expected to contribute to new performance growth points. According to statistics from the Civil Aviation Administration, as of September 2020, the total number of domestic civil aviation pilot licenses reached 71,270, adding 6,461 for the full year of '19, and the compound growth rate of the number of driver's licenses in 16-19 was 10.4%. Currently, the main pilot training school in China is the China Civil Aviation Flight Academy. According to the admissions guidelines, the number of students enrolled in flight technology every year since 2016 has been around 2,300-2,800. The remaining pilot training is mainly concentrated overseas. There are few domestic private pilot training institutions, and the threshold is high. We believe that overseas pilot training will gradually return to the domestic market in the future. The company acquired General Aviation in '19, has CCAR-141 flight training qualifications, and has begun to enter the pilot training market. As general aviation and airline training contracts continued to be implemented during the year, it was shown that the company's qualifications and training capabilities in the field of pilot training began to be recognized by the market. In the future, pilot training carrying capacity is expected to continue to expand, and the scale effect will gradually be unleashed, becoming a new performance growth point. The driving school business picked up in the second half of the year, and I am optimistic about the company's marginal room for improvement. As the epidemic was gradually brought under control, demand for driving test training that was affected and delayed in the first half of the year began to pick up, and the company's driving test business has recovered well since Q3. Combined aviation training orders continue to advance, and we are optimistic that the company's business level will usher in marginal improvements. Net profit for 2020-22 is estimated at 180 million yuan, 280 million yuan and 310 million yuan respectively, corresponding to EPS of 0.31 yuan/share, 0.47 yuan/share, and 0.52 yuan/share, respectively. The average P/E valuation of comparable companies in 2021 is 51X. Considering that the scale of public education in comparable companies is larger and there is a certain valuation premium, the company was given a valuation of 47X P/E in '21, corresponding to a reasonable value of 22.31 yuan/share, maintaining an “increased holdings” rating. Risk warning. The pandemic has affected driving school operations; aviation contracts have fallen short of expectations.

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