Overview of events
The company's 2020H1 realized income / homing net profit / adjusted net profit of RMB 279, up by 9.8% over the same period last year, with an increase of 28.4% and 25.8%, which exceeded expectations. The dividend per share is HK10 cents, with a dividend payment rate of 36.5%.
Analysis and judgment:
Income split: (1) according to the breakdown of tuition fees and accommodation fees, tuition income increased by 15.4% year-on-year to 257 million yuan, while accommodation income decreased by 48.0% to 15.88 million yuan (33.9 million yuan refunded due to COVID-19 's epidemic) (2) according to the breakdown of the number of students and average tuition fees, the number of students enrolled in the 2019-20 academic year was 19857, an increase of 11.5% over the same period last year, and the school utilization rate was 90.2%. The average annual chemical fee of 2020H1 was 23319 yuan, an increase of 3.5% over the same period last year.
2020H1 gross profit margin increased by 6.44pct to 64.39% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease in related expenses due to the increase in the number of students, tuition fees and students leaving school during the epidemic. The sales expense rate / administrative expense rate / financial expense rate decreased by 0.37/0.14/-1.36pct to 0.27%, 17.82%, 10.59%, respectively, and the sales / administrative / financial expenses were 0.01, 0.5, 000, 000, The increase in management costs is mainly due to the increase in professional service fees, and the increase in financial costs is mainly due to the cessation of capitalization of financing costs after the completion of the construction of the second phase of the school. The homed net interest rate rose 5.40pct to 37.26% year-on-year, while the adjusted net interest rate increased 5.19pct to 40.66% year-on-year.
Growth points:
Increase in the number of students: (1) Policy expansion is good: beneficiary college enrollment expansion, the enrollment plan of Jianqiao College for the 21st academic year 2020max increased by 478 to 6755 compared with the same period last year, of which the number of graduates increased by 450. (2) increased support for majors: two new majors of health service and management, art and technology were established in 2020University. in the future, the company expects to add 2-3 majors each year. (3) guarantee for the improvement of the utilization rate of the campus: the second phase of the project launched in August 2019 will increase the student admission capacity by 4000 to 22000, and the third phase of the project to be launched in September 2020 is expected to increase the student intake capacity by another 4000 to 26000.
The average dormitory fee increases: (1) the internal tuition fees of each course are increased, and it is planned that there will be an increase in tuition fees for another 4 students in 2020, and the tuition fees for eight majors in 2020 will be increased by about 30% and 40%. The accommodation fees for the second phase of the dormitory will be increased by about 60% to 5800 yuan compared with the same period last year, and the accommodation fees for the freshmen enrolled in the first phase of the dormitory building will be increased by 33% to 4800 yuan compared with the same period last year. (2) upgrade of undergraduate structure: the proportion of 2016-2020E undergraduates is 79.97%, 81.24% / 81.65%, 83.01% / 82.11% respectively, gradually upgrading to undergraduate structure.
The potential performance of epitaxial M & A has increased: (1) actively looking for suitable acquisition targets to expand the campus network and form synergy, priority should be given to private colleges and universities that meet the needs of East China (especially the Yangtze River Delta), have more than 5000 students and earn more than 100 million yuan. (2) with the combination of the interest discount policy in the new Hong Kong area and the comprehensive credit of 1 billion yuan by banks, the financing cost of the company has been reduced step by step.
Investment advice:
It is predicted that the income from 2020 to 2022 will be 5.52,7.01 and 820 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 10%, 27%, 17%, and a net profit of 1.93,2.49 and 295 million yuan, with an increase of 54%, 29%, 19%. With the company's remote expansion to promote its valuation in the future, there is room for further improvement, covering for the first time, giving a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
Education policy risks, lower-than-expected expansion, lower-than-expected improvements in operational efficiency and profitability