This article is edited by CICC's "Hong Kong stock market downside is limited", Huatai "broken clean" and AHMarket trend after the break of premium ", Tianfeng Securities" belief in high valuation of US stocks continues to be loosened "

One and three major factors caused the stock markets in Europe and the United States to fall sharply, dragging down Hong Kong stocks.

Hong Kong stocks fell sharply again this weekHuatai's analysisPeripheral risk aversion, negative interest in heavyweight stocks and capital supply factors have dragged down the performance of the market at the present stage.:

1) the second epidemic in Europe and the second blockade in the UK led to a rise in risk aversion in the periphery, and the consumer service sector in Europe and the United States also led the market down.

2) in terms of heavy equity in Hong Kong, the HSBC "Ponzi scheme" incident dragged down the performance of the financial sector

3) in addition, the two major IPO of NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD. and Ant Group, which are about to be listed, also bring capital siphon effect.

According to the analysis of some institutions, the high valuations of the technology, consumer and pharmaceutical sectors that were obviously held together in the early days are to some extent comparable to those of Nasdaq, soThe recent loosening of belief in high valuations in US stocks has also spread to Hong Kong.AThe technology sector.

Huatai's analysisDue to the reversal of the fundamental trend in the United States and Europe (the mitigation of the epidemic in the United States and the deterioration of the epidemic in Europe), the strengthening of the disturbance in the US election, and the high-frequency pressure on Sino-US relations, Hong Kong stocks may continue to consolidate in the near future.However, CICC stressed thatConsidering that domestic growth continues to recover, there is no need to worry too much about the overall market trend.

The macro data for August were better than expected, further confirming the continued improvement in China's economic growth:

Second, the downside space is limited, and Hong Kong stocks already have the advantage of high ratio.

Although short-term breakthroughs are under pressure, Huatai stressed that "Whether from an absolute or relative point of view, the medium-term performance-to-price ratio implied in the current valuation of the Hang Seng Index has a significant advantage.".

first,Absolute angle of viewThe 12-month expected PB of the Hang Seng Index has fallen to 0.98x. Only two rounds of Hang Seng Index have broken net since 2006, which are 2008-10-27 and 2016-1-11, respectively, and the subsequent 24-month gains are 115.7% and 50.4%, respectively.

Second,Relative perspectiveThe Hang Seng AH premium index has now risen to its highest level since 2015-9-14. Only four times since 2010, the AH premium has risen above 140. it is 2011-10-4, 2015-6-8, 2015-7-7 and 2015-12-3, respectively. excluding the top of the two bull markets in 2015, the Hang Seng index rose 43.8% and 33.8% respectively in the 24 months after 2011 and 2015.

CICC is also optimistic about the long-term trend of Hong Kong stocks.Despite the recent pullback and profit-taking pressure on the growth target, its analysis still recommends buying the "new economy" sector at a bargain. Investors are also advised to focus on some old economic sectors and consumer targets that benefit from improved growth, strong exports and RMB appreciation, such as cars and spare parts, capital goods, transportation, consumer services, durable goods and insurance.The overall idea is the balanced allocation of new and old economies..

Views of other institutions:

1)Jianyin InternationalIt is believed that the sharp fall in European stock markets is related to the second wave of the epidemic and fears of Brexit, while US stocks have also fallen sharply, which may be related to the uncertainty of the general election, in addition to geopolitical factors.

2)Morgan Stanley HuaxinIt is believed that the recent domestic economic recovery is orderly, the overseas epidemic situation is still not under control, and some excellent domestic enterprises are expected to increase their global market share.

3)Global Market Strategy of Jingshun Asia-Pacific regionIt is believed that emerging market (Asian) stocks, especially the Chinese stock market, will continue to be bullish in the future, on the basis that the market turmoil may last until after October, but when the vaccine is initially released and the uncertainty of the US general election is eliminated, the market may usher in the next wave of opportunities.