Hong Kong stock A-share premiums highlight mid-term price-performance advantages, and non-fundamental market sentiment forms recent market pressure

華泰證券 · Sep 22, 2020 09:21 · Researches

核心观点

短期交易主线仍是美元走势，但中期港股性价比已优势明显

A股/港股自7月中以来与人民币脱钩，港股尤其显著，恒指弱势震荡vs人民币强势，反映非基本面的情绪因素压制市场表现。除欧洲二次公共卫生事件外，汇丰（00005）等权重股利空汇集、大型IPO虹吸效应亦构成近期抛压。指数突破震荡区间需三点风险靴子落地（欧洲公共卫生事件/大选/中美科技摩擦）及对应的弱美元趋势重启。但历史上恒指破净或AH溢价突破140后两年内港股表现强势，反映中期性价比优势明显，延续南下定价策略。

市场结构：本地股弱于中资股，股汇脱钩反映非基本面情绪压制

9.21 A股/港股表现呈现三个特征，第一，区域方面，港股弱于A股，香港本地股（恒生香港35）弱于中资股（恒生国指），反映风险因素主要来自外围而非内地；第二，行业方面，消费者服务、科技硬件、汽车、保险等领跌，受地缘政治事件催化的军工领涨，领跌板块有公共卫生事件冲击链特征；第三，离岸人民币汇率仍维持强劲，人民币汇率与A股/港股表现自7月中以来持续脱钩，港股尤其显著，反映非基本面情绪因素构成近期市场压制力。

外围避险情绪、权重股利空与资金供给因素共同拖累大盘表现

从外围市场与权重股表现看，本轮A股/港股下跌既有系统性因素，亦有权重股利空集中爆发、资金供给因素。欧洲二次公共卫生事件+英国考虑二次封锁导致外围避险情绪升温，欧美消费者服务板块亦领跌市场。港股权重股方面，汇丰（00005）「庞氏骗局」事件、海底捞（06862）「抄袭门」、小米（01810）「竞业协议」风波集中爆发，分别拖累银行、餐饮和科技硬件行业表现。此外前期农夫山泉（09633）、即将上市的蚂蚁集团（未上市）两大IPO也带来资金虹吸效应。

短期胜率打开仍需三点风险「靴子落地」、「非典型弱美元」化解

我们在8.2报告《弱美元下哪类资产与板块占优?》中提出，弱美元下顺周期资产与行业占优，7月末起美元横盘震荡，外资加配新兴权益的逻辑受到挑战，三大因素压制外资流入幅度：1）美欧基本面趋势反转，美国公共卫生事件缓解叠加欧洲公共卫生事件恶化，2）美国大选的政策不确定性扰动加强，历史上港股在政党更迭的大选前后1个月内表现偏弱，3）中美关系进入高频施压阶段，尤其是针对互联网龙头的压制上升。短期市场突破震荡区间仍需上述三点风险「靴子落地」，关键节点为11月初大选与欧洲二次公共卫生事件拐点。

恒指破净叠加AH溢价突破四年高位，港股隐含中期赔率优势显著

从中期视角来看，港股风险评价已处于较为极端的位置。第一，绝对视角：恒指12个月预期PB已跌至0.98x，06年以来仅有两轮恒指破净，分别为2008/10/27、2016/1/11，其后24个月涨幅分别为115.7%、50.4%；第二，相对视角：恒生AH溢价指数升至2015/9/14后的最高位（147），2010年以来仅有四轮AH溢价向上突破140关卡，分别为2011/10/4、2015/6/8、2015/7/7、2015/12/3，除开2015年中的两次牛市顶部位置，2011/10/4与2015/12/3之后的24个月内恒指涨幅分别为43.8%、33.8%。无论从绝对还是相对视角来看，恒指当前估值隐含的中期性价比已优势显著。

港股配置思路：延续南下定价策略下的三条主线

自5月起南下资金持续交易AH溢价下的性价比主线，当前AH溢价处于极端位置，叠加非典型弱美元在大选前或持续，配置上延续南下定价策略，在南下定价权较高的板块中配置：1）景气上行+估值性价比高+具备α的中资大金融、中资汽车产业链，2）内/外/被动资金（恒生科技指数）共同指向的中资科技龙头，中概股回归+独角兽上市改善港股新经济估值体系的中期逻辑不变，短期利空事件带来错杀机会；3）十四五规划相关的新能源链。

风险提示：

海外公共卫生事件恶化；国内经济修复不及预期；中美关系超预期恶化。

Core viewpoints

The main line of short-term trading is still the trend of US dollars, but the performance-to-price ratio of Hong Kong stocks has been obvious in the medium term.

A shares / Hong Kong stocks have been decoupled from the renminbi since mid-July, with Hong Kong stocks particularly marked. The weakness of the Hang Seng Index fluctuates and the renminbi is strong, reflecting non-fundamental sentiment that suppresses market performance. In addition to the second public health event in Europe, the short-pooling of weighted dividends such as HSBC (00005) and the siphon effect of large-scale IPO also constitute the recent selling pressure. Breaking through the volatility range requires three risky boots landing (European public health events / elections / Sino-US science and technology friction) and the corresponding resumption of the weak dollar trend. However, in history, Hong Kong stocks performed strongly in the two years after the Hang Seng Index broke net or the AH premium exceeded 140 years, reflecting the obvious performance-to-price advantage in the medium term and continuing the southward pricing strategy.

Market structure: local stocks are weaker than Chinese stocks, and stock exchange decoupling reflects the suppression of non-fundamental sentiment.

9.21 A shares / Hong Kong shares show three characteristics. First, in terms of region, Hong Kong stocks are weaker than A shares, while Hong Kong stocks (Hang Seng Hong Kong 35) are weaker than Chinese stocks (Hang Seng National Index), reflecting that the risk factors mainly come from the outside rather than the mainland. Second, in the industry, consumer services, technology hardware, automobiles and insurance led the decline, while the military industry led the rise driven by geopolitical events, and the leading plate was characterized by the shock chain of public health events; third, the offshore RMB exchange rate remained strong, and the RMB exchange rate continued to be decoupled from the performance of A shares / Hong Kong stocks since mid-July, particularly in Hong Kong stocks, reflecting the recent market pressure caused by non-fundamental sentiment.

Peripheral risk aversion, negative interest in heavyweight stocks and capital supply factors are a drag on the performance of the market.

From the perspective of the performance of peripheral markets and heavyweight stocks, the decline of A shares / Hong Kong stocks in this round has not only systematic factors, but also the concentrated outbreak of heavyweight stocks and the supply of funds. The second public health incident in Europe and the second blockade in the UK led to a rise in risk aversion in the periphery, and the consumer service sector in Europe and the United States also led the market lower. Hong Kong equity heavy shares, HSBC (00005) "Ponzi scheme" incident, Haidilao International Holding (06862) "plagiarism door", XIAOMI (01810) "competition agreement" storm broke out, respectively dragging down the performance of the banking, catering and technology hardware industry. In addition, the two major IPO, NONGFU SPRING CO., LTD. (09633) and Ant Group (not listed), also bring capital siphon effect.

The short-term winning rate still needs to be resolved by three risks: "boots landing" and "atypical weak dollar".

In our 8.2 report, "what kind of assets and sectors are dominant under the weak dollar?" it is pointed out that the downcyclical assets and industries of the weak dollar are dominant, and the logic of foreign capital plus emerging rights and interests has been challenged since the end of July. Three major factors suppress the extent of foreign capital inflows: 1) the fundamental trend of the United States and Europe has reversed, and public health events in the United States have alleviated the deterioration of public health events in Europe. 2) the disturbance of policy uncertainty in the US general election has intensified, and Hong Kong stocks have been weak in history within one month before and after the election of political parties. 3) Sino-US relations have entered a stage of high-frequency pressure, especially the rise of repression against Internet leaders. Short-term markets still need to break through the volatility range of the above three points of risk "boots landing", the key point is the turning point of the general election in early November and the second public health event in Europe.

The AH premium of Hang Seng Index broke through a four-year high, and Hong Kong stocks had a significant advantage in implied medium-term odds.

From the medium-term perspective, the risk assessment of Hong Kong stocks has been in a more extreme position. First, absolute perspective: the 12-month expected PB of the Hang Seng Index has fallen to 0.98x. Only two rounds of Hang Seng Index have broken net since 2006, which are 2008-10-27 and 2016-1-11, respectively, and the subsequent 24-month gains are 115.7% and 50.4%, respectively. Second, relative perspective: the Hang Seng AH premium index rose to its highest level since 2015-9-14. Only four rounds of AH premiums have broken through the 140s since 2010, namely 2011-10-4, 2015-6-8, 2015-7-7 and 2015-12-3, respectively. Excluding the top of the two bull markets in 2015, the Hang Seng Index rose 43.8 per cent and 33.8 per cent in the 24 months after 2011 and 2015, respectively. Whether from an absolute or relative point of view, the medium-term performance-to-price ratio implied in the current valuation of the Hang Seng Index has a significant advantage.

The idea of Hong Kong Stock allocation: continuing the three main Lines under the southward pricing Strategy

Since May, southward funds continue to trade the main line of performance-to-price ratio under AH premium, the current AH premium is in an extreme position, superimposed atypical weak dollar before the election or sustained, the allocation continues the southward pricing strategy, in the southward sector with higher pricing power: 1) upstream economy + high valuation performance-price ratio + Chinese big finance and Chinese automobile industry chain with α 2) the internal / external / passive funds (Hang Seng Technology Index) jointly point to the Chinese science and technology leader, the return of Chinese stocks and the listing of unicorns to improve the medium-term logic of the new economic valuation system of Hong Kong stocks remains unchanged, and short-term negative events bring wrong opportunities. 3) the new energy chain related to the 14th five-year Plan.

Risk Tips:

Overseas public health events worsened; domestic economic repair fell short of expectations; Sino-US relations deteriorated more than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.

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港股A股溢价凸显中期性价比优势，非基本面市场情绪构成近期市场压制力