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时代中国(1233.HK)更新报告:销售、旧改进展积极 利润稳步释放

中泰國際 ·  Sep 15, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Sales growth continues to accelerate, and the acquisition and transformation of old reforms is progressing positively, and sales progress is ideal. The company's contract sales for August/first August grew at a year-on-year rate of 41.0%/14.4%. It achieved 60% of the annual sales target in the first eight months, higher than the annual sales completion rate for the same period last year (55%). The annual saleable value of goods is about 150 billion yuan. We think there is a high probability that the company will reach the sales target of 82.3 billion yuan. Old reforms continue to accelerate. By the end of the year 19, the total number of the company's urban renewal projects had exceeded 120, with a potential total construction area of about 43 million square meters, a sharp increase from the potential total construction area of 19.2 million square meters at the end of 17; entering 20 years, the company continued to actively expand the old renovation plan. By the middle of the year, the total number of projects had reached 150 million square meters, with a potential total construction area of 52 million square meters. The project transformation in the first half of the year was basically in line with expectations, completing the conversion of 1.37 million square meters, with a corresponding value of 42.5 billion yuan; we believe that the company's old reform business has entered a period of accelerated development, and the net profit from the urban renewal business is expected to exceed 19 years this year. In the medium term, we expect the company's current urban renewal reserves to be converted into land storage over the next 7-10 years, which will strongly support the company's sales and profit growth. Revenue recognition for the first half of the year was slightly delayed due to slight delays in property delivery and urban renewal revenue confirmation. 1H20 revenue fell 6.4% year on year to about 14.93 billion; gross margin fell to 26.9% from 32.5% in the same period last year and 29.3% for the full year, mainly due to a decrease in revenue from the high-margin urban renewal business in the first half of the year; SG&A's share of revenue was 8.2%, up slightly from 7.9% in the same period last year; and net profit attributable to core fell 8.5% year on year to about 1.56 billion. The company maintained a solid financial balance sheet in the first half of the year: net debt ratio is 71.0%, short-term debt ratio is 41.1%, and cash-to-short-term debt ratio is 1.4x. Adjust the profit forecast, adjust the target price to HK$17.58, maintain the buying rating, taking into account the impact of the pandemic and the tightening of financing policies since July. We believe that the settlement of the 20/21 project will be delayed, and we have lowered the 20/21 core net profit by 13.1%/12.7% to 5,501/6.541 billion yuan. The company has been working on urban renewal for many years and has abundant project reserves. Currently, relevant policies continue to gain strength. We believe that the company will usher in a period of value release for urban renewal projects, and sales scale and profit are expected to grow steadily. We maintain a positive view of the company's fundamentals. We rolled over to 5.0x PE in 20/21 and adjusted the target price to HK$17.58. The target price increased by 51.3% in response to the current price. We maintain a “buy” rating. Risk warning: (1) the real estate policy has been drastically tightened; (2) the RMB exchange rate has fluctuated sharply; (3) sales have fallen short of expectations

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